Aditya Singh

ETH looks weak - but wait!

KRAKEN:ETHUSD   以太坊/美元
498 6 6
On the downside, triangle support at 291ish, while 260 is a bigger support being intersection of price line and fib level.
However, 4hr RSI is quite low, so don't initiate fresh short. My take: If you have long position: Hold, If you have short position: hold :)

Longer term view for investors: We are still due for a 5th Elliot wave . Also, weekly RSI which was too high is now coming to a more comfortable level and 1-2 weeks of upmove to reach 550USD is still pending.
How do you know 390 wasnt the fifth wave?
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@kash27, Multiple reasons, top 4

a. Covert candle to line chart and count the waves.
b. Longer term, we are not even in neutral trend by MATH MURRAY. Not enough evidence to think that trend is over yet
c. Current reversal was because of massively overbrought sitatuion, first dip to 264 brought daily RSI under control, now 2nd dip back to 261 (most likely) is bringing weekly RSI under control
d. Fib trend gives top right at 406 (value 1), by fib trend 1.618 has to be reached for current set of 5 waves to be over


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kash27 Aditya Singh
@Aditya Singh, So in your opinion its going to fall to 261 for further correction, before the breakout at 0.236? Thats assuming the wave is still upward. Everything is volatile in the crypomarket, and so assuming control or neutrality is not easy. Do you see a possibility for a downward wave starting in june 20th when the candles touched the fib line? The 5-3 trend couldve reversed from there.

Most of the selloff started because of/around the status ICO, which could be replicated with EOS and NVO tomorrow
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kash27 Aditya Singh
@Aditya Singh, Actually if we compare the current trend with the article below youre right on! Although it doesnt go over RSI and fib
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/trend_of_the_day/2014/04/11/EW_Effectiveness.html

Im just trying to understand your points. Since the fifth wave is lower than the third for the most part, do you expect it to reach 500+? And would you then short ETH just before the ABC wave?
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@kash27, With current correction, we might have just completed wave 1 which was earlier thought to be wave 3

fib extension is around 585USD so I will expect that to be the next target. Ofcourse confirmation : candle reversal + RSI will be required to go short again.

By charts, this thing is going big now.

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kash27 Aditya Singh
@Aditya Singh, Thanks for your analysis, I was wondering about the same thing earlier. Ive only recently started to learn about chart analysis and Im finding my way. How do you work out the target points accurately with the Elliot waves? I know thats question with a long answer! I'd appreciate it if you could at least point me to right pages to study on my own, or the main things that indicate moves, trends, waves and targets

Thanks again for your professional and detailed analysis
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