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ETHUSD Bearish Trend Approaching $400 to $300 - Newbie Analysis

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   以太坊/美元
The bearish parallel channel captures the main market movement since the All Time High. The descending Elliot Wave is my prediction on the price action. There are three projected movements till the end of the predicted trend:
  • The current market movement is expected to continue until it hits the bottom of the channel at $400, forming the bearish B to C segment.
  • Bouncing off this point, it will hit resistance at $570 (point D). This line is projected from the double bottom that occurred between December 21 and 24.
  • Finally, it will settle at $300 (point E), which was the long term stable price before November 2017.
The primary reason I think ETH will drop to $300 is because of the combined result of the Bollinger Bands and 100 period MA. Currently, the bands are expanding and the RSI is dropping beneath 30, indicating an abnormally volatile bearish trend . This volatility will need some time to die down, extending the trend. Coupled with the fact that the 100 period Moving Average is far above the current price, I think it's reasonable for ETH to reach this value.

After this bearish trend completes, I would expect the price to stay neutral or slightly bullish for a while before the market starts to kick in again.

This is my first technical analysis attempt. If you have any ideas on how I can improve this, please give your feedback. Additionally, any tips on how to apply Fibonacci Retracements or technical indicators related to timing the market would be greatly appreciated. Happy trading :)
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