ETHUSD potential short opportunity (if we drop below 200)

Hey guys, after the EEA3 news was not able to break thru the selling pressure of ICOs, after some consolidation with occasional spikes in buying AND selling volume , we finally broke thru out the symmetrical-ish triangle. IF we break thru this orange line ($200 mental support), shorting games can be started. On the graph, I drew all major (and some minor) support levels as well as Fibonacci retracement (137-257) AND the previous major downtrend lines extension as they now most likely will become support lines. The thicker the line is the stronger the support is.

Good luck to you all!

Happy trading!

P.S. What I noticed is that BitFinex is leading Kraken in price by something between 20 seconds to 1 minute, and the downtrend lines can't be drawn as perfect as on BitFinex, so I'd advise, even if you trade on Kraken, analyze the graph of BitFinex instead.

TO SEE THE GRAPH CLEARLY as well as zoom in-out, change the time scale, etc etc, you can click "share" - "make it mine".

If we do go low hard, I will try to update this idea as soon as I start seeing something similar to a bottom (this analysis is very lagging though and has 65-70% success rate, so don't rely solely on me).
评论: After a perfect 0.382 Fib retracement, we continue our way down.
评论: Closed short at 192, will most likely reopen at 202 or so.
评论: If we go below 194.5 I re-short, if we go up to 203-204 on decreasing volume, I reopen short.
评论: Those prices are based on different Fibbonacci retracements.
评论: If we pass 205 on strong buying volume (prefferably increasing as the price is increasing) I will open long.
评论: Opened a small short as it's unlikely that that was the bottom, but it's still very risky (I love risk), so best to wait for 194.5.
评论: So I closed my short at the same price I opened it, with a small loss now I need to have a nap and go to work, but here was the last thing I was looking at:

This shows the 0.382 Fib retracement, after which we possibly can either go upwards or bounce down. I know this is a crucial time but I can't wait for the price to decide what to do anymore. Overall I am still slightly bearish, maybe not immediately but I believe in the next 24 hrs we will go lower than $190 (70%+ sure).

By the way, as I stated earlier about possible long - I am not yet convinced by the volume, I wouldn't go long myself.

Good luck!
评论: Seems like my prediction of sub $190 in 24 hrs is correct. I just went short 10 minutes ago.
评论: Hey guys! My short decision was definitely rushed, my bad. Can anyone who has experience trading harmonic patterns please confirm or deny if this is what seems to be playing out? Bearish Bat pattern (X-A, A-B (slightly more than 0.5 retracement), B-C (0.94 retracement) all seem to fit very well into the pattern so far.

Note: I closed my short because 1) this Bat pattern seems likely and 2) I am at work anyway and can't monitor the graph well. I will likely regret doing this but I'd rather take a small loss than get burned hard while away from graphs.

Note2: If this Bat plays out, we will have a very good certainty in targets indicated by red lines. Entry - when the price starts going down after touching D and stop is slightly (2 USD) above the D.


Sorry for a lot of rushed decisions and lack of thorough analysis, in 3 days I will be on vacation and have much more time for better real-time monitoring.
评论: To clarify, after these targets on Bat play out (and after some retracement) we will still most likely see further decline in price, my "below 190 in 24 hrs" still stands. I just closed short because opening it at the top of right wing will give more profit than this loss I took now.
评论: And BAT thing seems to not play out, I'm shorting again. Target 193.9 on a micro bear flag. Stop loss can be set to 200.5 or so after we move down a bit.
评论: So, the last short went well, In fact, I was able to get in 2 similar shorts because of some random guy making flash crashes yesterday.

So Finally we have some clearer development, here is the graph (with some alarms tips inside) that I will follow:

However, keep in mind to monitor the price on this graph with major supports indicated, as the price may not reach the target of the bear pennant and stop somewhere at these supports.
评论: Guys, FYI: the further updates are on this graph now:

(Although this graph with support lines will still be valid later if we do break downwards, but for now, the new graph is of more use.)
评论: We broke down, I'm shorting 189-182, then if it looks like we will go lower I will keep it open. The actual target based on the pole is between 172 and 176. After that we may go even lower, I can't tell that yet.
评论: So as we can see here, all the bounces upwards on this bear run were off of the support zones indicated in this idea. If you were actively watching volume behavior next to these zones/lines, you could trade the swings perfectly.
Some BTC split news around.. if confirmed, a sudden dip could make this all go crazy.
+1 回复
Prof I have to say I am quite glad you are making all these updates to your original idea. Really helps me understanding everything as it develops and not just an original idea that might invalidated 1h later.
+1 回复
profghibli PRO azertyasdf
@azertyasdf, Thanks a lot man! I was debating whether I should adhere to the common etiquette here (not posting many updates), but after these words I see that this stuff can carry a lot of educational value and many of my followers who read these graphs are mostly new to TA, so I will keep posting updates.
What do you discern as strong volume?
profghibli PRO cvarley100
@cvarley100, Greater than 1.5-2K and highly preferable that it is increasing as the price is increasing (more people willing to buy at higher price)
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profghibli PRO cvarley100
@cvarley100, To clarify, greater than 1.5-2K per candle on 5 min scale
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Yup, Looks like it can fall below $100 line. No Rev. H&S or any sentiments supporting at this time since Bitcoin is falling like crazy and the ETH also falling with double % of BTC/BTU (New upcoming BTC split.)
@Andy1, there is an uptrend line (it's pretty weak tho, as it only had been touched 3 times) which if we were to touch it right now, it would be at ~110s. So I doubt we will go lower than that line. Most likely we will even bounce off one of these recent downtrend line (temporarily).
thanks for sharing.
+1 回复
profghibli PRO shadowforworld
@shadowforworld, No problem mate :) Doing this keeps me awake and alert. It's night here but cause I know that some people also rely even a bit on my updates it makes me more motivated to trade this dip more cleanly.
+1 回复
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