$ETH – Classic Breakdown → Bounce → Reshort Setup Into 20 SMA

前天

ETH – Classic Breakdown → Bounce → Reshort Setup Into 20 SMA Resistance
Ethereum (ETH) is giving one of my all-time favorite continuation short setups — a clean breakdown, followed by a weak bounce right back into the 20 SMA, which is exactly where momentum names often fail.

🔹 The Setup:
• After the big swoosh down, ETH is now bouncing right into the shaded zone between the 9 EMA and 20 SMA.
• I call this area the Bone Zone — where broken trends come to die.
• ETH is showing zero character change on the bounce: lighter volume, lower high structure, no real demand.

🔹 Why This Is Textbook:
• Breakdown → weak retrace → touch of the 20 SMA = the exact continuation short I’ve traded for nearly 20 years.
• The 20 SMA often acts as the “kiss of death” in downtrends when momentum has already flipped.
• Crypto across the board is soft — BTC cracking key levels, ETH failing to reclaim anything meaningful.

🔹 My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Entry: Short into the 20 SMA rejection inside the Bone Zone.
2️⃣ Risk: Stop just above the 20 SMA — clean and mechanical.
3️⃣ Target: A retest of the breakdown lows first, then mid to low -$2,000s if momentum continues.

Why I Love This Setup:
• Same breakdown pullback pattern I’ve run for decades — clean, high R/R, predictable.
• Structure is perfect and risk is tight.

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2500 might be some support if i see a liquidity flush and a wick near there I will take some off