OceanBlue
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Ethereum/ETHUSDT Long Setup (H4/Daily)

POLONIEX:ETHUSDT   Ethereum / Tether USD
Hello, traders!

I stumbled upon this POLONIEX:ETHUSDT             pattern thanks to DLavrov's idea:


As (quite unfortunately!) my platform is not offering cryptocurrencies trading, I'm usually not checking them, but this setup definitely captured my attention.

Perfectly shaped wave almost reached point 5 now. If the resistance around this level stands, I would expect it to go North all the way up to planned target (point 6).

Even though I can't trade it myself, I decided to publish this idea anyway as in fact it looks like a very interesting long project to me.

GL All!
评论: Today (11/07) the price made a good attempt of forming point 5.

Ethereum descended to 170 level and slowly climbed to 189 afterwards.

Both RSI divergence at H4 and especially significant volume build-up at this point are speaking in favour of this.

For strong confirmation of trend change, the price needs to return back to the body of the pattern by crossing 1-3-5 line (20x area). This move should be supported by significant volume to ensure its further successful development.

评论: Today (12/07), the price returned to the internal structure of the wave. Being supported by RSI and solid volume spike while crossing 1-3-5 line, its initial target is line 2-4.
It is possible that the price will re-test 1-3-5 (20x) area once again prior to that move. If this line (2-4) is broken, the next target will be point 6.

评论: Minor mutually opposite waves formed around point 5 of yellow WW.
Depending on which one prevails, the price will either return back to the body of major pattern or will keep its descend to new lows.

评论: The red pattern took over and the price followed to new low. Even though new purple wave was formed, it is not supported by divergence/volume. Technically speaking, the price is still in the "sweet zone" of the yellow pattern, but there are no signs of reversal of downtrend which can be considered to be true only if the price returns back to 20x area.

评论: The price bounced from point 5 of purple pattern. This move was supported by both RSI divergence and the largest volume since mid march 2017. The question whether the price manages to breakthrough line 2-4 or continues its current move to the South remains and the answer to it will likely define the future short/mid term trend direction.

评论: Orange bearish wave formed at m15 time frame. While being supported by RSI divergence, at the present moment this possible short WW is not being supported by volume dynamics change.
If this attempt to reverse the beginning of uptrend fails and this minor wave is broken, the next targets will be line 2-4 of purple pattern and return to 20x area.

评论: The price confirmed the reverse of the trend by breaking lines 2-4 of purple and yellow patterns and staying above these formations.

The way to planned point 6 is opened now.

评论: After reaching point 6 of purple pattern, the price tried, but didn't manage to breakthrough line 1-4. Taking into consideration RSI confirming this *local downtrend along with consequently lowering volume, it is possible that ETHUSD will retest 19x (or even lower along purple line 2-4) area once again.

If Ethereum continues with significant upward move backed by solid confirmation data (especially volume!), the next TP remains at 42x level.

However, if it doesn't, caution is advised due to all the factors previously mentioned above.

评论: Looking at the chart retrospectively, the price retraced to 18x area at the very end of July. Then, the bulls prevailed and the price advanced to 30x area making its already halfway to originally planned target at point 6.

Thanks for your idea.. Waiting to see if the downtrend hits 200 buy zone.
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OceanBlue tonezzz
You're welcome! Currently, it really looks like that the price is going to hit 20x area soon.
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bigsteiny tonezzz
@tonezzz, looks like you got your $200!
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tonezzz bigsteiny
@bigsteiny, indeed, although now I'm waiting to see if it breaks even lower over the next week or so for entry ;) Looks like it's gonna bear for at least a few more days. Well see.
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What is the basis for your rebound to $400+ (point 6)?
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OceanBlue mindatlarge412
Hello!

The grounds for rebound lie in the very nature of Wolfewave pattern which is based on re-test of previous support and resistance areas.

The wave is considered to be successful if the price reverses at point 5 and then reaches the target line 1-4.

It is possible to predict where it will cross via 2 ways:

1) Classic - looking at the ETA point (where triangle is ending)
2) Not so classic - usually, it takes as long to form the wave from point 1 to point 4 as for the price to move from point 4 to point 6.

In most cases I prefer the 2nd one as it usually gives more accurate results and the 1st one is not always applicable due to limitations of wave shape.

In this particular case, their potential targets are pretty close to each other:


I hope this helps :-)
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