DontWatchDoc
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Ethereum put in Its place... For now... 790s or 1150s?! (ETH)

POLONIEX:ETHUSDT   Ethereum / Tether USD
Hello all!
Just started on Tradingview platform so I appreciate any feedback.
Anywho, onto the analysis! (Using 4H chart)

In my previous post(on my old account, I apologize), I commented on the Head and Shoulders Pattern on the 4H chart:
"ETH formed the right shoulder on the 4 H chart overnight essentially reversing the positive trend ETH was previously on. It took a plunge down to its ~750 support level . The target for the Head and Shoulders pattern formed is at ~790, which I expect it to take unless it can break out of this newly formed negative trend."

As an update, It seems that ETH is either forming a Bear flag (in White/some pink) which would be a continuation pattern of the new negative trend OR ETH is beginning to form a W pattern(REVERSAL pattern). This distinction is very important because it essentially determines whether our target is 790s( Head and shoulders target), OR 1150s(W pattern confirmation).

Here's the problem folks... We CAN invest now and take our chances, but this may be too risky... Or we CAN invest once we see confirmations, but thats boring and provides limited benefit. Would you rather invest in the low 900s and see it shoot up? Or invest in the 1150s and see if the trend continues? I'll let you decide but as for myself I would like to be apart of the early buyers.

What I am specifically suggesting is to wait to see if the middle part of the W "hits (around 980) and then bounces back off the Right bottom part of the W(around 907).

The Bollinger band is also very important to consider, and is the basis for the W formation. See how the Left side of the W comes down outside the bounds of the bottom blue Bollinger band . The RIGHT side of the W should come down INSIDE the bollinger band if it is a true W. If it goes down farther, or even below the bollinger band , this will signal that the "beginning" of the W was in fat just a bear flag and would give further evidence for the 790s target.

There are many other factors to consider such as the MACD and RSI . We will examine these factors as the price action develops. Until then, Don't Watch!
-Dr. Don't Watch
评论: Morning all!

Looks as if big E has been aiming for the middle of the W since the last update. Although we are still technically in the negative trend, price action since last night were good signs. Check out the green circles on my new chart this morning(removed all the previous head and shoulders clutter from before).



-The top green circle represents the middle of the W target and is around where I expect it to hit. There is a chance it has already "made" the middle of the W, and in that case will dip down once more.
-The green circle on the RSI points out that the seller momentum on this dip is fading compared to the last... "But Doc, couldn't we call this a double negative bump?". Yes, and it may very well be. W and double bumps are very similar, with W utilizing more bollinger bands, double bump utilizing more RSI. Regardless, they are both important reversal patterns to look for.
-Bottom green circle represents MACD shorterm about to cross over. Important to note here that there is a good chance this will bump off it and go back down again to form the last leg of the W. As there is not currently significant buyer volume right now, I doubt it will crossover for long if at all.

Overall, I expect ETH to possibly gain a little more to the high 900s and then dip once more to the high 800s. Once the indicators and possible divergence of this is observed, we can make more confident moves.

Until then... Don't watch!
-Dr.DW
交易结束:到达目标: 792 target hit! Failed W reversal pattern! the negative trend continues. I'm closing this trade idea, as I suppose I should have been posting as "Education" and not long/short. oh well, it ended up shorting to the target like I stated earlier anyhow.

Stay tuned for more ideas on ETH.
-Doc
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