I updated EURAUD several times lately and for context see below:
However I don't like the price action in all Euro pairs up to the ECB press conference (bullish moves during today's London session). I trade structure and most Euro pairs show me an overall bearish bias besides EURAUD at the moment. So I took another look and I think that this consolidation is not over yet. If it is I have to let it go because I simply don't like trading this structure and chasing a trade is unnecessary. We made a lot of profit last week with several calls (percentage and risk/reward wise because pips don't matter when running a business) and I rather stay aside and enjoy my day then trade a structure I don't like. Ascending corrective structures are not the corrective structure I like to trade because the risk of a sharp reversal is high. I will only trade this from the bottom and was not able to that because I did not see an entry according to my trade rules. So the scenario (or comparable structure) I drew in the chart is what I'm looking for in terms of a potential trade set-up. I need price to make another low for wave E to trade this pair long. Otherwise I have to wait for the continuation and next consolidation to trade this pair from a lower time frame.
We might very well see an opportunity to buy EURAUD next week. Price made a first leg higher for what might be a wave A of wave D. I prefer to see a small leg lower of lesser degree for wave B (in green) and then look for reversal and buy EURAUD. If my wave count is incorrect in terms of that expanding triangle we are in the trade and simply have to hold it. Updates will follow.
评论
chrisvos
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i think the last wave already is the E wave and the correction is over now.. we will see if it breaks or not.. good luck
TimStuyts
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Yes could very well be. It is easy, it either does what I want or I move on and wait for the next trade set-up. Key is that if this corrective structure happens to be correct the overall bullish move on higher time frames is still corrective (shown in the other chart of the daily time frame) so the real trade has yet to come. Would surprise me by the way to see a strong Euro later today but time will tell and Draghi made many mistakes before when it comes to communicating;-) Structure is just not clear enough for me to trade it right now (in terms of all variables to be in place or not to trade with a success-ratio of higher than 90%). Good trading to you.
chrisvos
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You are right, I never trade the break of expending triangles because they don't give the good R:R as other corrections. I bought the pair from 1.5453 so its BE now. Lets hope for some good ecb news to breach the euro higher!! good luck!!