Since I'm posting about EURUSD and AUDUSD today let's have a look at our long term trade plan for EURAUD as well. (EURNZD will follow later today). For my previous post and context see link below: I still count the move on the daily time frame as a triangle consolidation. I'm therefore looking for a bullish reversal on lower time frames until proven otherwise which will result in me adjusting to the market. Short term we see a minor impulse and my pending buy was missed by a few pips. That's part of trading and doesn't matter since the best and safest trade has yet to come. If we see a consolidation for this minor bullish impulse I will buy the continuation with stop loss below the consolidation. If it reverses we are not in the trade and simply wait for the next set-up.
Well we didn't see the consolidation and price made a new low. We weren't in the trade so no loss. I will update EURNZD today as mentioned yesterday because I think that pair might be better to trade in the near future. Regarding EURAUD I will closely manage it but we might see an invalidation of the daily triangle which will indicate a whole new scenario with much more room to move lower. Updates will follow
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It seems like EURAUD is about to reverse. Whether this will be an impulse or correction will determine what's next in terms of the higher time frames.
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ReneK
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Hello Tim, i'll wait for breakout, a good idea ?
TimStuyts
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Are you referring to a potential bullish break-out? Either way I would recommend to wait for at least a minor impulse followed by a consolidation to trade the continuation (might be happening soon). I might sound boring by repeating that over and over again but this way you erase a lot of noise out of your trading. I just updated this pair, let me know if that's what you are looking for or whether I misunderstood your question. Good trading to you!
ReneK
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I understand, thanks for your comment !!
Subjugal
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And again a great analysis from you. I wonder, if the down move is already completed and revearsal is ahead. It´s not meant as a question; no need to answer. Just wanted to mention my thoughts about it. Thanks for the great information you give to us.
TimStuyts
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I'm glad you like it. The consolidation that I'm looking for can be considered as either a confirmation of the low or not. We have to wait for that to unfold to determine that.
Subjugal
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I wonder if the fall down below 0.768 Fibonacci Retracement might be consequence of Brexit shock happening to EUR. Regarding this, it would be a revearsal, that could have already happened, if there weren´t Brexit.
TimStuyts
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If you like to test that scenario you have to focus on EURUSD and AUDUSD, the most part of the move down in EURAUD came from AUD strength, not EUR weakness after the 'Brexit' vote. Nevertheless structure will help us determine what to make of the EURAUD move. Keep in mind that the triangle on the daily time frame can still be invalidated. So short term we need to focus on the bullish impulse that can be seen on the 1 hour time frame.
Subjugal
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Thanks for this information. I liked the connection of fundamental and technical data.