Posting this idea to follow up how the reasoning plays out after discussing it with @airmac
The reaction to fib levels and trendlines confirmes this mrkt bias
Draghi talked the euro down on thursday; EURUSD correcting, hedging USD short exposure shorting EU for the right shoulder formation, TP at neckline or before. USDCAD downtrend channel intact, forecasting continuation of UC downtrend. CAD>USD>EUR. Oil uptrend, USD weakness and optimistic OPEC forecast wont drop oil much. Pullback in CAD completed after BOC is starting they rate hike cycle