EURCHF monthly TA

FX:EURCHF   欧元/瑞郎
46 0
Looked from a global perspective -together with the pre-1994 data provided by IDC- this pair seems like in an eternal bear trend. Yet the move beginning from the 2007 top has shown an immense downward pressure, which met resistance around parity twice. Was the January 2015 bottom the absolute bottom for this move? Lower time-frames might provide information to answer that question, but from the monthly chart, we can tell two things:

1) The trigger line was so serious in rejecting the upward tendency. It is important here to note that the trigger line is also the .33 Dow ratio speed line, that is, any action above this line would be a good news for the bulls. It is also important to observe that the price did not get rejected exactly at the meeting point with the TL, but slightly above it. The TL and the actual resistance lines are shown in red in the chart. So we should be careful and not too hasty in announcing the end of the move even if the price seems to cross the borders.

2) There is this support line (the green horizontal ray), which is at the 2.618 extension of the inception swing - the downswing from October 2007 to October 2008. What makes this line important is that it is also at the termination point of an AB=CD pattern. The points A, B, C and D are shown in the chart but the equivalence of the distance from A to B and from C to D could be seen in the arithmetic scale.

Thus, the support and the resistance lines constitute a triangle, the breakout of which is seemingly to determine the future of the trend. For now, we are experiencing a NR4, which could as well be a NR7 until it reaches UWL-6. The breakout may also be confirmed by the Stochastic indicator, whose channeling was shown in the chart.


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