EURNZD 4th wave completion

FX:EURNZD   欧元/纽元
114 5
The 3 months long 4th wave {4} correction is completing at more than 61.82% retracement of {3}, thus resuming uptrend - setting up for a possibly extending white wave {5} for the coming months.
Great analysis as always but I think it has a little more to go down before the bounce as the 5th wave isn't complete in my count.

Reason 1: 1.1617 (current price) is 1.618 fib extension which confirms that is sub wave 3 of 5 complete
Reason 2: Ratio 5 vs 1 wave is not hit 100% (@1.60164)

I could be wrong but feel free to let me know your thoughts on this.

+1 回复
TradingEW donaldsaw
Good point ! thank you.
TradingEW donaldsaw
Hi Don,

This pair may go your way further down to 1.60164 before reversing or it is reversing now. That does not matter, because corrective patterns will eventually be retraced.

I've entered positions already around 1.6140 with confidence, because very small position sizes (feeler) is used initially until it moves into trend, then large positions (killer) will be placed by scaling-in:

1. to prevent large d/d.
2. to avoid missing out on a trade.
3. so I can sleep better overnight. : )

EW analysis is not an exact science, while money management (esp. position sizing & scaling-in) in setting up trades does help.

Best to your trades,
donaldsaw TradingEW
Thanks for your feed back and good to bounce ideas off fellow EW traders. I've started using Motivewave as my analysis of choice rather than Tradeview but will share my thoughts and ideas where possible.

30min chart on reversal and confirmation:
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