EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Pair trades near long-term channel

FX:EURTRY   欧元/土耳其新里拉
The common European currency continues its long-term appreciation against the Turkish Lira. As a result, the pair is constantly pushing its ultimate high northwards.

During the past three months, the Euro is stranded in an ascending wedge . However, it seems that a breakout is likely to occur soon, as the upper boundary of this pattern has been unreachable for the last week and a half. In addition, the rate has approached the upper boundary of a senior channel circa 4.57 which has bounded the rate since mid-2014. Along the way, the Euro faces a strong resistance of the weekly and monthly R1 at 4.55.

Given the pair’s long-term appreciation, it would not be surprising if this bullish movement continues to prevail. However, it is more likely that a pair retraces from the senior channel just to cool off its high levels.

Contrary to expectations, the Euro continues to appreciate against the Turkish Lira. If looking at the strong appreciation that it apparent on longer-term time-frames, it seems that the movement of this pair is depended more on fundamental events and speculations rather than technical factors.

The pair has been trending in a sharp channel up on the hourly chart. However, the up-trend keeps getting even steeper, thus making it hard to determine a possible area of reversal.

In the short-term, the Euro reversed from the weekly S1 at 4.54 on Thursday and has since surged to the upside. Technical indicators suggest that the rate might still push higher up to the 4.62/63 area and then edge lower towards the aforementioned 4.54 area.

However, as previously mentioned, fundamentals might swiftly change the overall market sentiment and keep pushing the rate even higher.

As apparent on the chart, the Euro continues to appreciate against the Turkish Lira with an increasingly steeper movement. As a result, all previously-drawn channels are constantly breached to the upside.

The Euro is currently trading near the upper boundary of its latest channel up. Technical indicators are located near historical highs; thus, it is likely that the pair initiates a slight correction downwards. A possible target in the short-term could be the 4.58 area.

By and large, it should be noted that this pair depends heavily on fundamental events both in the EU and Turkey. Thus, as long as situation in Turkey remains unstable, the Euro could to continue to edge higher within the following weeks.
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plz update your scenario now on the pair as it has reached 4.63 also
Dukascopy VarunGarg
@VarunGarg, the pair has been updated.
good synopsis and charting :))
can u please specify any targets too for today and what should be our position if it reaches above 4.56 ??
Dukascopy VarunGarg
@VarunGarg, we apologise for the late reply. We have updated our outlook on the pair.
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