Trump vs Fed, trade negotiations and recession risks

2019年4月16日

Trump continues the crusade against the Fed. He is absolutely not satisfied with the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of the USA, and he keeps reminding in his twitter. He accused the Fed that the Central Bank slowed the growth of the US economy on Sunday, also impedes the growth of the US stock market. Recall, the Fed is an independent body and has the right not to coordinate monetary policy and its actions with the US President. Such a position does not “play into the hands” of the dollar. So, our position in the foreign exchange market remains unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar.

Meanwhile, the United States launched negotiations on trade wars on all fronts, literally. Recently the main attention was focused on China, now negotiations are simultaneously being held with the EU and Japan. In general, it is a positive signal for the global economy and risky assets.

Another signal was the meeting of IMF representatives and the World Bank. Despite the fact that the IMF has already lowered forecasts for economic growth rates three times in a row, representatives of the IMF and the World Bank agreed that the risk of recession remains very low.

So, the current decline in gold and the growth of USDJPY is explicable. Nevertheless, there is no material evidence of actual progress in the negotiations, with the exception of individual comments. Therefore, we continue to look for points to buy gold on the intraday basis. We are buying USDDJPY, which acts as a hedge.

As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying). We are buying gold and oil in the commodity markets. In addition, we continue to sell the Russian ruble.