The pair has potentially completed a 5-motive wave sequence, and I say potentially for the reason that we still cannot say with 100% certainty that wave 5 is over.
It has given a topping formation (double top) as well as a strong lower low - lower close candlestick last week which could be signaling the start of a pullback / correction.
My potential scenario: Short @ Entry: 1.2401, SL: 1.2701, TP: 1.1701, RR: 2.33
For risk and money management purposes, always determine a max. of 2% risk on every trade. For example on a $50,000 account, this would be equivalent to 1,25 Lots with an 80 pip stop loss. Targets and closure of positions may be subject to alteration throughout the course of the trade. This is due to the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of the market. This post is set to be used and serve as an example and in an educational manner and is not to be taken as direct investment advice.
评论
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nice playout - too bad i didn't actually take it ;p
@SN_Doumet KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK MAN AND IGNORE THE TIME WASTERS
Tarder
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Thanks for the chart. Totally agree with your labelling of running flat 2 and then a zigzag 4, which provides alternation of corrections. But, just wondering why you think the 5 has finished? If 2 of 5 was a zigzag, should we not see a flat or triangle here for 4 of 5 before one more leg up to around 1.26 - 1.27? Or do you think we can have two zigzags? On the 14th of February, the low was a 61.8% retracement of the move up from the 9th, so I thought that was a 3 wave move up. I hope the top is in and that you are right. Cheers.
Aqua_Trader
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@Tarder, Notice how I said in the description that we cannot tell for sure this is the end of wave 5 and also in the title i wrote 'anticipating a pullback' so we first have to wait for the clues that the markets will give us
Tarder
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@SN_Doumet, Don't start crying man, I was overly generous to you. That's a really patronising and silly response. So, basically you don't know? Anyone can say we should wait for the market. The key to making money is to know, or have a high degree of understanding as to what is about to happen. The move up contains 3 waves, as judged by the pull back on the 14th. So, that implies that you're suggesting the up move ended on a 3, unless of course you couldn't read the waves.
Aqua_Trader
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@Tarder, You're kidding me right? ...I won't even bother giving you a proper answer, therefore thank you so much for your insightful and intelligent comment.
Tarder
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@SN_Doumet, No, I'm not kidding you. I was very polite and was hoping for a discussion to find out why you thought 5 of 5 was in, but your response was a touch rude, patronising and void of an explanation. I can read descriptions and titles, so there's no need to get annoyed and ask me what I noticed. I had hoped you would explain the structure you saw that brought you to the conclusion that the final wave was in. So, you indeed didn't 'bother with a proper answer' in the first place. It's fine to say you just don't know.
Aqua_Trader
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@Tarder, my response was a touch rude? Not my problem if you take things so personally and start calling out people names. The fact that you get so sucked into the whole 'labelling' idea just goes to show how little you know about waves. Good luck trying to figure out the correct count. You will soon come to realise that labeling is only part of illustration purposes. On your 2nd comment you say that I misjudge wave 5 as a 3 wave move yet you don't comment on the 1st wave that only appears to be a 1 wave move :P . This is the exact reason I mentioned in the description that we could have POTENTIALLY gotten the end of the whole sequence. As I said good luck trying to figure out the correct count. Focus on the concept and leave the counting aside.
Tarder
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@SN_Doumet, If it's not your problem, then it's not my problem that you cried about my response. Now do you see how stupid your argument is? I obviously know more about waves than you if you couldn't see the retracement which makes it a 3 wave move. Your comment that says I said you 'misjudged' wave 5 shows the problem here. I was asking a polite question, but I clearly hurt your ego. I was asking what you saw, but you threw your toys out and asked me to read the description and title. You don't know, and now you're trying to put me down to boost your weak ego by saying I don't know about waves. How utterly pathetic. Unless we have dramatic news that moves the market, the labelling IS important. I don't need any luck figuring the count, to me we are still in 4 with one more leg up to go. You on the other hand are lost, you just don't know. You're definitely no pro, mate, keep guessing.
As for your gibberish on wave 1, not sure what you mean, but often one section is one wave, whereas the second part of the move is often split into sub sections. That's basic EW.
Aqua_Trader
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@Tarder, Oh dear Lord can you become even more of a drama queen? This is so ridiculous. I don't know why you misinterpreted my very first comment because I was not hurt at all. Not sure why you took my response as rude, aggressive, offensive whatever but you gotta relax and stop taking things so personally. Labelling is important when it comes down to identifying the correct corrective pattern you're in and by trying to count and label every single wave as 1,2,3,4,5 you will not find much success. One single wave, that's all it takes to count it wrong and your whole trade is compromised.
Did I ever say I was a Pro?? Where did you see that? Jeez you just have a personal thing with labelling don't you? :P. I sincerely hope your count is correct and that you find lots of success with it in the future.
That last comment of yours just shows you don't even know the basic tenets of EW...
No motive wave or one section is one wave, unless you're trying it to make it fit in order to match your analysis :P. It will always break down to 5 subwaves if you want to label it like you do