Looking at some long term technical signals that is supporting a weaker EURO
OUTLOOK: Lower Prices
Idea Supported by the following technical observations
Major Pitchfork: Headed to the Black ML from P2 (1 July 2008)
Green Upward Pitchfork: Breach of Lower MLH and now Sliding Parallel constitutes a price failure, Therefore counter move should be greater than the move up, towards the ML ( See both downward targets )
Grey downward pitchfork: Supporting our expectation of prices falling to the latest ML ( See FIB targets 0.272 & 0.618 ) and finally to the MAJOR pitchfork ML ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supporting Major Top 1.39924 (May 2014)
Time Resistance Previous Upward Range Took 11 Months. 200% of 11 Months is 22 Months ( Ends MAY 2014)
Price Resistance Current upward range is 63.7% of previous upward range and 67.30% of previous downward range, thus they are in a Pivot Zone between 61.8% and 78.6%.
Sincerely,
Timing Is Key
评论
Timing_is_key
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Hello all, Downward purple median line reached & the 0.272 fib extention. We have already seen a ( bounce ) here question is how much of a retracement before heading down to lower prices.
LevRidge
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1.480 by late aug/sept... be advised at to where that hits on this fork..
Timing_is_key
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Not at all Hamza & good pickup!
When this chart was done, I drew the smaller forks first & then quickly drew the big one, actually, you can use previous ( Handle ) pivots & Dr Andrew's actually taught a specific distant pivot method to isolate P5's. But in this case my original handle lacked good hits. Your handle is a good fit as it shows a possible retest of an upper parallel line.
I've changed the Handle on the chart below to the most recent Top based on a LARGER perspective & it is quite amazing as it is validating my view that the Euro is headed lower. It is also respecting the 1/4 & 1/8 divisions which is in line with my recent post using a standard Horizontal range retracement from Handles 2 & 3 from your example above.
Thanks guys for your valued comments!
Sincerely,
TIK
Timing_is_key
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Sorry, Every Turn was hit most on the 1/4 & one on the 1/8 retracement
TIK
Timing_is_key
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I must me tired today:) two on the 1/4, two on the 1/8 & of course the ML. The last has not been confirmed yet!
NQunlocked
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This looks very valid to me TIK, great piece of work, since your slope is much older there is a high probability it will be respected!. I will throw in some EW and add a pitchfork to the RSI and let you know. Btw you suggested using median lines on RSI...The results are AMAZING. And the beautiful thing is, that RSI is way ahead of price action which makes it a very powerful approach for forecasting!
NQunlocked
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Timing_is_key
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Anytime , glad to contribute ideas. Just remember, play around with settings on RSI to see which number (s) are proving consistent on the major turns. Once you find the setting it should be good to go for the life of the pair.
TIK
NQunlocked
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Here is it with RSI
NQunlocked
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The only way that is going to happen 99nines is if some big event takes place effecting the US economy negatively. Maybe the war in Iraq?. From a TA perspective this baby is going down!