JohnLaw

STUMBLING the EURUSD LEGS BY THE DAY

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE ON THE EURUSD            
(1 day, log scale)


I couldn't believe EUR could show itself to be THIS strong. It's a crazy week. Shorts were stopped out - of course. My wrong.

- tops had been tested, and have now been broken (on heavy volume )
- we've moved outside of the range
- expect retracement first, and on that retracement, have a very good look at how the RSI evolves: the RSI needs a proper line-up (= NO oversold reading) in order to be looking for the next ( bullish ) up leg.

Until then, I will definitely stay flat - I want to see support first with healthy internals.

Longer term picture (see the monthly chart):
nothings has changed. So a possible leg up (along the red resistance line) may take it to 1.18 (Fib level) or even 1.22 ( 50% retracement level). But that will be about all of it. The killing of the EUR will simply take a much longer time, let's see what happens in 2016.

The RSI was already holding up, but remained in neutral area. The recent spike pushed it to overbought levels. That is a good sign - being the first condition for a bull-trend to develop on the daily. Now, on the next leg down, we should NOT see any oversold reading in the RSI (and I doubt we will) in order to be able to start looking to the next leg to the upside.
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