Head&Shoulders Pattern on EURUSD

2021年6月16日

* I see a sell pattern on the Euro / Dollar currency pair.
* I consider the testing of the resistance level (head) and the formation of the second shoulder below local minimums to confirm the strength of the pattern.
*The potential of the trade is small, but it is suitable for intraday trading.
* The main target for the deal is the weekly control zone (1.2090)

2021年6月17日

注释

The Fed has begun to prepare for a tougher policy.

The acceleration of inflation in the United States, which reached a 13-year maximum in May, and in some metrics reached records since the days of Ronald Reagan, forced the Federal Reserve officials to change their tone.
🔹According to the results of the meeting on Wednesday, the Fed left the key rate range (0-0.25% per annum) unchanged, but for the first time since the beginning of the crisis increased rates on operations in the money market.
🔹 Reverse repo of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, allowing banks to "park" excess dollar cash, from June 17 will be conducted at 0.05% per annum (against 0% previously).
🔹The rate that the FRS pays on the reserves placed in its accounts will also increase by 0.05% (to 0.15%).
🔹At the same time, the mood of the voting members of the Open Market Committee has sharply changed.
If in March only four out of 18 were in favor of raising the key rate next year, then at the June meeting there were already seven of them. In the forecasts for 2023, the majority (13 people) are already in favor of raising rates, whereas three months ago there were seven of them.
🔹FED's forecast for the key rate for 2023 is now 0.6%, which means at least two steps up. At the same time, five votes in the FOMC were given for three or four increases (up to 0.75-1% or 1-1.25%).
🔹 It is not surprising that the dollar reacted to this news with a significant strengthening. Having worked on the #EURUSD currency pair, the "Head and Shoulders" pattern provoked a decline by more than 120 points. #EURUSD is now trading below 1.2000.