CapMoore

Price Rejected By The H&S Neckline/Yearly Pivot Point

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
63 0 4
Since price failed to trigger the H&S pattern and has fallen sharply along with bullish stock markets,
a new assessment is needed. Looking at the weekly timeframe , we have a significant Bullish divergence
on the MACD indicator, between the 2015 and 2017 lows. MACD trend is bullish , but price is still trading
below the Kumo cloud, so upward action may still be regarded as a retracement. Price also failed to close
above the Yearly PP             at 1.0830, but did however open above it. The gap was ominous and warned of a turn.

One scenario going forward, is that price wants to retest the Daily Kumo Cloud as support before continuing
up. This may be the reason for the deep bounce off the neckline of the inversed H&S pattern (moving below
61,8 fib of previous leg. The upper daily Kumo Cloud currently stands at 1.0623 and the lower at 1.0583. Since
the projected cloud still is bullish , the support is likely going to be strong. The daily MACD has turned bearish .

To summarize. Until we see a daily close below the Kumo Cloud and see a bearish twist of the projected cloud,
this may still be regarded as a deep retracement off the Yearly PP             . A taken out of the 1.0492 low will of course
shift sentiment to the bearish side. The Monthly PP             at 1.0685 is still untraded and is likely to be traded perhaps
after a bounce off the cloud, thus that is the short term target for scalpers taking a long position around 1.06.
The weekly PP             , also untraded, is another, wider target for bullish scalpers, at 1.0737. Because of the sharp move
down, things look less clear than a couple weeks ago, and it is not a good time to commit to longer term trades
at this point.
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