Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (14.12-18.12)

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
Ahead of us the most important week of the year due to a Fed that at the next meeting (15-16 December), has decided to commence a series of increases in interest rates and present to forecast further rises in 2016. Investors in particular will await a press conference, Janet Yellen, which will take place 30 minutes after the Fed meeting. At the moment, the chances of an interest rate hike in the US amounts to 79.4%, while the market expects another two hikes in 2016.

Calendar for next week is as extremely interesting. In the first part of the week the markets attention will be paid to the reading of core inflation in the US. With Germany will flow information concerning the ZEW economic mood. In the middle of the week we will know the whole pack PMI for the euro zone. From the United States will flow data on building permits and PMI reading for the industry. In the second part of the week we will know the Ifo business sentiment index and the industrial index by the Fed in Philadelphia. The next and final reading associated with the pair EUR / USD will be reading the PMI for services in the US.

The outlook for EUR / USD:
Last week there was the establishment of a double peak at 1,1030-41, which from a technical point of view should support the supply side. In the first part of the week (the Fed), the eurodollar rate should head south toward support at 1.0930 and 1.09. If you happen to break the 1.09 level of supply will head towards support levels at levels 1,0795-1,0810.

On Wednesday, investors will focus on the communication of the Fed meeting, which does not necessarily imply the fast pace of monetary policy tightening in 2016, which could disappoint markets. The Fed certainly will take into account external stimuli and the possible consequences, which may suggest that further rate hikes will be flat and elongated over time. Therefore, we may be witnessing strong growth. in the direction of the last maxima at 1,1030-41. Further demand could lead to wywindowania course around the resistance level of 1.1140 (peak of 23 October).
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