The broader downtrend remains firmly intact, with the recent topside failure above 1.1300 setting the stage for the next major downside extension towards 1.0900. Look for a fresh lower top in place at 1.1367, while ultimately, only a break back above this level delays the bearish outlook. Any rallies while below 1.1367 are classified as corrective.
Looking at the fundamentals, yesterday’s much weaker than expected US ISM services PMI showing was the catalyst for this latest jump in the Euro back above the 100-Day moving average. Ultimately, the market is trying to figure out if the Fed is still seriously considering a rate hike this month or even this year and with the Fed talking a lot about data dependency, this latest ISM print is doing a good job of reducing the risk for a Fed hike, in turn opening a fresh round of Euro bids against the Buck. Still, with the ECB decision due Thursday and with the central bank to maintain its dovish outlook, it’s unlikely the Euro will be looking to move much higher today. Moreover, Fed Williams was out earlier with some hawkish comments that also could be helping to cap Euro gains. As far as today’s data goes, the focus will be on German industrial production, US JOLTS job openings and the Fed Beige Book.
Looking at the fundamentals, yesterday’s much weaker than expected US ISM services PMI showing was the catalyst for this latest jump in the Euro back above the 100-Day moving average. Ultimately, the market is trying to figure out if the Fed is still seriously considering a rate hike this month or even this year and with the Fed talking a lot about data dependency, this latest ISM print is doing a good job of reducing the risk for a Fed hike, in turn opening a fresh round of Euro bids against the Buck. Still, with the ECB decision due Thursday and with the central bank to maintain its dovish outlook, it’s unlikely the Euro will be looking to move much higher today. Moreover, Fed Williams was out earlier with some hawkish comments that also could be helping to cap Euro gains. As far as today’s data goes, the focus will be on German industrial production, US JOLTS job openings and the Fed Beige Book.
