The euro made considerable ground against its US counterpart on Thursday, after finding active bids around the 1.24 handle (H4 timeframe). Largely ignoring better-than-expected US ISM manufacturing PMI data, the pair, as you can see, concluded the day marginally closing beyond the 1.25 handle and connected with a H4 AB=CD (see black arrows) 127.2% Fib ext. point at 1.2512.
Despite daily price also faintly crossing above a daily Quasimodo resistance at 1.2495, let’s keep in mind that weekly movement remains trading within the walls of a weekly supply zone printed at 1.2569-1.2287. Another essential point to consider is that yesterday’s high: 1.2522 connected beautifully with a 38.2% weekly Fib resistance at 1.2519 taken from the high 1.6038 (forms part of a weekly Fib cluster circling around the top edge of the current weekly supply base).
Potential trading zones:
With weekly supply still in play (along with weekly Fib zone) and the H4 AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. point recently brought into the fray, as well as a truckload of stop-loss orders above 1.25 now likely filled (buy stops provide liquidity to sell), a selloff could be in store. To be safe, however, stop-loss orders for any shorts at this point are best placed beyond the weekly supply edge (1.2569).
Data points to consider: EUR Spanish unemployment change at 8am; US job’s figures at 1.30pm; US revised UoM consumer sentiment at 3pm; FOMC member Williams speaks at 7.30pm GMT.