Sentiment Shifts Back Towards Bears Providing a Bullish Signal
Tomorrow morning, the US Non-Farm Payroll report will be released which could create some volatility for the USDollar. Today's post is meant to provide a frame work of levels to monitor so when the news is released, we can follow our own plan rather than getting emotionally driven by the market.
After careful study of the price action since early December, there are 2 elliott wave counts we are following. We are favoring the bullish count as the sub-waves match up cleaner. This implies a medium term bullish outlook in that a red circle wave iii higher started from yesterday or will do so over the coming days. Breaking above the purple trend channel and moving above 1.0950 is key to increasing the odds we are in red circle wave iii higher. See the pre-NFP post we made from early December for the longer term wave labels.
Yes, that bullish count would imply a break above 1.1090 which we've highlighted as a critical level for bears and would suggest a retest of 1.17. Perhaps the wave count is providing us an early warning signal of the move.
The alternate count is a bearish count and is noted in orange. The sub-waves don't line up as well, but it is still being considered.
Sentiment is tracking nicely for the long count. We were a little concerned on January 5 that sentiment was providing a mild bearish signal. However, it has now flipped to providing a mild bullish signal since the current reading is -1.27.
Through the NFP release tomorrow, watch the real time sentiment reading to provide clues about the near term direction. If the reading grows more negative, look for prices to move higher. If the reading moves more positive, look for prices to fall. Watch sentiment in real time HERE.
Happy Trading!
After careful study of the price action since early December, there are 2 elliott wave counts we are following. We are favoring the bullish count as the sub-waves match up cleaner. This implies a medium term bullish outlook in that a red circle wave iii higher started from yesterday or will do so over the coming days. Breaking above the purple trend channel and moving above 1.0950 is key to increasing the odds we are in red circle wave iii higher. See the pre-NFP post we made from early December for the longer term wave labels.
Yes, that bullish count would imply a break above 1.1090 which we've highlighted as a critical level for bears and would suggest a retest of 1.17. Perhaps the wave count is providing us an early warning signal of the move.
The alternate count is a bearish count and is noted in orange. The sub-waves don't line up as well, but it is still being considered.
Sentiment is tracking nicely for the long count. We were a little concerned on January 5 that sentiment was providing a mild bearish signal. However, it has now flipped to providing a mild bullish signal since the current reading is -1.27.
Through the NFP release tomorrow, watch the real time sentiment reading to provide clues about the near term direction. If the reading grows more negative, look for prices to move higher. If the reading moves more positive, look for prices to fall. Watch sentiment in real time HERE.
Happy Trading!
评论:
NFP is hitting the wires in 10 minutes...be mindful of increased volatility. Watch the SSI in real time...I'm looking for a move below -1.6 to hint at a break above 1.1000
评论:
With the EURUSD near the top of the NFP range, looks like another test of the 1.0925-1.10 congestion is coming.
评论:
EURUSD is still in the congestion zone. A lot of emotion with stocks plunging and oil selling off. EURAUD plumbed the 1.5950 which suggests more strength coming. EURUSD sentiment is dropping and now at -1.5. Keep an eye on 1.1000 - a break there may be an early warning signal of a 1.1085 break.
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