EURUSD trade has been affected by the US tax reform progress past week. USD not only failed to continue rallying, but lost its charm somewhere between disappointment around the tax reform and plummeting equities, and an empty macroeconomic calendar, which left investors clueless on what’s next.
The upcoming week at least will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with relevant releases at both shores of the Atlantic, including German , EU GDP and , and US and retail sales among others.
Although tax-reform developments seem to dominate the headlines, USD’s performance in the week ahead will be affected by 3 factors – politics, economics and . There’s no doubt that politics will be the primary driver but with 6 presidents speaking, the prospect of rate hikes could also affect how the Dollar trades. Retail sales and consumer prices will also be released and investors will be eager to see if last month’s sharp increase in jobs translated into more spending. While we believe that rate-hike talk could lift the greenback, lower gas prices and zero wage growth in October along with the drop in consumer sentiment means spending may be restrained. So on balance, we expect a mildly positive boost from Fed speak and U.S. data.
More about the fundamentals: http://www.fxters.com/eurusd-forecast-technical-analysis-november-13-17/
As we have mentioned before 1.16600 – 1.16900 is the short-term for EURUSD . If EURUSD can break above 1.16900, 1.17400 will be the midterm resistance.
1.17400 is the Fibo Retracement 61.80% of the last drop from 1.18800.
On the , the price is still below 50 and 100. and are still in the negative zone but headed North.
On the H4 chart, is positive. moving towards the overbought area. Price is above 50 and testing 100 resistance.
So technically we see an uptrend on smaller chart timeframes but still downtrend on the .
EURUSD needs to rise above 1.1750 in order to shake off the negative bias. If Draghi takes the opportunity to remind the market that rate hikes are a long way off, EURUSD could find itself back below 1.16 quickly.
We have a week ahead full of data, speech and political uncertainties. Let the market open on Monday. We will try to get adapted ourselves to developments.
Trade Plan of EURUSD will be released for premium members by the Asia Opening