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EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis November 13-17

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
EURUSD             Forecast And Technical Analysis November 13-17

Fundamentals:

EURUSD             trade has been affected by the US tax reform progress past week. USD not only failed to continue rallying, but lost its bullish charm somewhere between disappointment around the tax reform and plummeting equities, and an empty macroeconomic calendar, which left investors clueless on what’s next.

The upcoming week at least will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with relevant releases at both shores of the Atlantic, including German inflation , EU GDP and inflation , and US inflation and retail sales among others.

Although tax-reform developments seem to dominate the headlines, USD’s performance in the week ahead will be affected by 3 factors – politics, economics and monetary policy . There’s no doubt that politics will be the primary driver but with 6 Federal Reserve presidents speaking, the prospect of rate hikes could also affect how the Dollar trades. Retail sales and consumer prices will also be released and investors will be eager to see if last month’s sharp increase in jobs translated into more spending. While we believe that rate-hike talk could lift the greenback, lower gas prices and zero wage growth in October along with the drop in consumer sentiment means spending may be restrained. So on balance, we expect a mildly positive boost from Fed speak and U.S. data.

More about the fundamentals: http://www.fxters.com/eurusd-forecast-technical-analysis-november-13-17/

As we have mentioned before 1.16600 – 1.16900 is the short-term resistance area for EURUSD             . If EURUSD             can break above 1.16900, 1.17400 will be the midterm resistance.

1.17400 is the Fibo Retracement 61.80% of the last drop from 1.18800.

On the Daily Chart , the price is still below EMA 50 and EMA 100. RSI and Stochastic are still in the negative zone but headed North.

On the H4 chart, MACD is positive. RSI moving towards the overbought area. Price is above EMA 50 and testing EMA 100 resistance.

So technically we see an uptrend on smaller chart timeframes but still downtrend on the daily chart .

EURUSD             needs to rise above 1.1750 in order to shake off the negative bias. If Draghi takes the opportunity to remind the market that rate hikes are a long way off, EURUSD             could find itself back below 1.16 quickly.

We have a week ahead full of data, speech and political uncertainties. Let the market open on Monday. We will try to get adapted ourselves to developments.

Trade Plan of EURUSD             will be released for premium members by the Asia Opening
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