EUR/USD is going to below parity

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
177 0
What? Euro gonna be cheaper than USD?

This is likely scenario. It could take time, but I'm expecting EURUSD to have the next low at $0.85-$0.95 area. Look at the chart.

Symmetry everywhere

As you can see on this chart, most EURUSD crashes since 2008 had the same percentage of price falling: between 20% and 25%. This is the new nature of Euro . The most recent EURUSD downtrend correction's high was at around $1.16, therefore we can subtract 20-25% from that price and get the new possible target: $0.85-$0.95 range. This is where the Euro gonna fall to within the next 1-2 years. Or even earlier.

$0.85-$0.95 range support already confirmed in early 2000s

As you can see on the chart above, Euro already traded in that range in early 2000s and formed a pretty good support. So for now I'm not expecting the Euro's price to fall below that range.

If EURUSD > $1.16, then the downtrend is cancelled

In the (unlikely) case the EURUSD starts going up on high speed right now, breaks the $1.16 resistance and holds there, then my bearish scenario is cancelled and Europe gonna become happy again.
评论: The downtrend seems failed for now
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