Go Short: Range 1.2520 to 1.2600
TakeProfit 1: 1.2300
TakeProfit 2: 1.2200
TakeProfit 3: 1.2080
StopLoss : 1.2900
Then expect a rally after the pullback . The Angle of momentum at the moment is too extreme to be sustained and a strong EURO would kill the Euro Economies which are fragile at the moment. Look at the chart it speaks for itself.
All major US , European and Asian banks have forcast for EURUSD to be around 1.2500 to 1.2700 at the end of 2018 not within 1 month of 2018. I suspect a carnage in the EURUSD market is about to happen before we see a sustained rise of the EURUSD .
Note: There is a very Large Option protection ( No Touch) at around 1.2230 to 1.2260 , it will take the BIG GUNs or Options expiry to break that.
Target TakeProfit 2 = 1.2200 == NEXT ( Please bring your Abram's Tank with heavy Artillery -- Option barrier with heavy fire ahead )
The Great White Sharks are out hunting . Make sure they don't take you bait including you .
From the advance FED's Chairman testimony released yesterday, There is no major risk to the Dollar Index apart from speculators wanting to make a quick profit.
Expect increased volatility on EURUSD and DXY for the next few days as US Administration wrestle with Tariffs on Steel and aluminium plus others. I hear cries of a " TRADE WAR " .
NOTE: US Dollar Index DXY will strengthen going forward but not rapidly but a drunken way. Risks on US Economy are lower compared to risks on EURO economies as well as ASIAN Economies . The common factor is the Reserve Currency == Mighty DOLLAR . Always remember , No matter what you trade , the DXY has something to say about it .
At this time , I am hunting for a sell on any reactive upswing more than 60 pips e.g Tariffs announcement today, i am selling the damn EURUSD until it starts to show signs of a real Upswing. For now i don't see any .
The US administration is poised to levy Tariffs , the DXY has been decimated but the funny thing is that the EURUSD is not taking advantage .
What is wrong with this picture ? The EURO bulls are not very confident and don't want to be caught off guard if Tariffs problem fails. THE DXY on the other hand is facing a lot of Head winds mostly due to US administration ill fated policy.
As i did mention before , the US economy is a little stronger compared to EURO or ASIAN economies . With US Economy ( At US$ 15 Trillion + ) plus a Reserve currency you only need about 2.5 to 3.5 % GDP growth to keep moving . EU Economy is about ( US$ 12 Trillion + ) so technically you need about 4.0 to 5.5 % GDP growth to match the US economy strength . At this time , apart from Tariffs and the BIG BOYS bets ( JP Morgan, Goldman, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, HSBC , etc ) there is nothing driving the EURUSD higher. its just Speculation . Be careful not to get slaughtered.
We are at 1.2300 now, those shorts mostly are retail traders and HFT , The BIG BOYS have their long -term positions baked already and they are looking to add to their positions during any dip.
Major banks are have forcast of 1.2500 to 1.3200 for EURUSD at the end of 2018 but the FEDs have something to say about that , BTW we already hit 1.2500 and some BIG BOYS have eaten their cakes for the year 2018, so now they just looking for any tiny meal on the table --- The Great White Sharks are hunting . If the FEDs hike rates 4 times in 2018 and EURO QE starts being withdrawn in September you can forget about that forcast because we are looking at the EURUSD being below 1.2000 by end of Year 2018 .