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EURUSD: Long at 1.1180

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.5 from August's 49.4, which was a seven-month low. The median market forecast had only expected a rise to 50.3, but it still indicates only very sluggish activity growth. This release means that the third-quarter headline average is just 51.2, below second-quarter 51.8, but at least better than first-quarter 49.8. The overall trend does not indicate we will soon see an acceleration from mediocre gains.
The recovery was broad-based, with some impressive gains that still left indices for the most part worse than they were in July. The new orders index bounced up 6.0 to 55.1, a decent reading that could lead the sector back into modest to moderate growth in the fourth quarter, while the production index rose 3.2 to 52.8. Employment and inventories readings were nearly neutral, the former up 1.5 and the latter up 0.5, both to 49.5. That put our final demand measure (new orders minus inventories) up to +5.6 from +0.1, which was the lowest since October 2012.
The EUR/USD             fell after better-than-expected US data, but in our opinion the ISM reading does not change a lot in Fed interest rate expectations. We forecast a hike in December.
Today’s EUR/USD             drop was stopped by the trendline and in our opinion current level is a good opportunity to get long.
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