Every weekend, I re-analyze the previous weeks price action with a fresh perspective by starting over from scratch and see if I can come up a better scenario if the previous week's trades were not going as planned. And in this pair, my recent trades were not exactly on point. So I went back and thought more about it and see what I missed. This new wave count and scenario is what resulted. Let me first describe what I am now thinking prices will do in the short-term and how I will trade it.
The main chart above is a 1Hr TF chart. In the previous week's trade, I traded on the expectancy that prices would break down and head towards the bottom trend line of the larger triangle pattern. Price action has proved me wrong on that assumption. In fact, prices headed up and has now barely come up short of the upper trend line of that triangle pattern. So now what? Two weeks ago, prices spiked up and broke through that upper trend line. By doing so, it set the precedent that maybe that trend line was losing it's relevance. In this scenario, I take that into consideration and now expect that prices will exceed that trend line again easily. For now, that trend line has halted the current rise in prices. I'm showing that wave iii of the 5-wave uptrend is ending at this point and wave iv is underway. After the wave iv is finished, wave v will commence and pass through that trend line.
But here's where it will get interesting. I have drawn out a POTENTIAL bearish crab pattern that completes right near the B Point line of the 2 larger bat patterns seen on the DAILY chart. Also, at that point, the harmonic extension of wave iii places the 1.618 (the golden ratio) extension right there as well. And of course, the .618 retracement of wave (A) is also right there. That makes a pretty strong cluster of resistance that I think would mark the end of the wave (B) and send prices down in wave (C). This cluster of resistance also acts like a magnet drawing prices towards it. So I now have a strong expectancy that prices will follow this scenario.
DAILY CHART -BULLISH Scenario Updated With Latest Price Action + Projected Price Action DAILY CHART - Notes On Possible Future Price Action These are just my reference notes that I place for future use. This is part of how I analyze the markets and try to map out future targets. After I have those targets, I can then work backwards from them and project future subwave price action and possible patterns that might support them. I'd thought I'd include them so you can see how I work my charts.
WEEKLY CHART - Closeup On The Wave iii + Completed Butterfly Profit Targets My super long term trade on this pair could yield +27,000 pips! I am holding my LONG positions that I BOUGHT back on August 4th @1.08520 as per my trade analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Whole Lots A patterns point the way UP!"). I have also accumulated several other LONG positions on more LONG trades along the way.
OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart Showing Multiple Patterns + YEARLY Wave Count. Now In A Wave (3) Down MONTHLY CHART - Closeup On The Current Decline: Wave Count
CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN Obviously, this analysis does differ from my bearish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #1: EURUSD: BEARISH In Downtrend But How Far Will Go?") and is more in line with my preferred bullish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #2: Bullish Scenario.Triangle Holds Wave (C) UP!") although my wave counts are now updated and differ somewhat from before. I have ALWAYS been VERY BULLISH on this pair and that sentiment has not changed. I am looking for opportunities to add LONG positions at every turn while taking advantage of some good SHORTING opportunities as well.
Currently, I am waiting for wave iv to complete in order to go LONG in a trend continuation trade to catch the wave v up. But when wave v completes, I will be looking to go SHORT and catch the wave (C) down.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
TradebyRik
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Hi EF. How far back do you go for starting the Wave count. Is it from 1953 onwards?
EverythingForex
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I go as far back as 1990. That is as far back as my broker's data feed goes.
TradebyRik
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So in that case, does your wave count start from 0 from 1990 irrespective of the larger wave that may be in progress prior 1990.
EverythingForex
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my WORKING wave count as posted starts by taking into account the large impulse wave stemming from the end of the Yearly wave (B) to the wave (C) and then the decline from the end of wave (C) till present. Don't need to concern so much about what came before then as I only use the YEARLY/MONTHLY TF as a general guide as to where prices are and its' general direction. I don't trade on the YEARLY/MONTHLY TF.
Vamonosky305
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Genius!!!
EverythingForex
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Only if it works out the way I see it......;-)
KVE
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Target for completion of the crab would be right at my next target zone from this analysis: After that seeking confirmation first but there could be other formations forming:
Ozayevable
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i think there is a better, dare i say more likely scenario - an alt bat of some sorts. hope im not missing anything.
EverythingForex
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That's not an alt bat. Not really sure even where you are placing your B and C points. But anyway, where you have placed your reversal zone is right where the upper trend line of the triangle pattern is. It could very well reverse from there due to the triangle resistance. If it does, I'll be ready for that as well as per my bearish analysis I posted last week. But, as I see it, I'm now favoring the scenario in this post. Good luck!
Obviously, this analysis does differ from my bearish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #1: EURUSD: BEARISH In Downtrend But How Far Will Go?") and is more in line with my preferred bullish analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS #2: Bullish Scenario.Triangle Holds Wave (C) UP!") although my wave counts are now updated and differ somewhat from before. I have ALWAYS been VERY BULLISH on this pair and that sentiment has not changed. I am looking for opportunities to add LONG positions at every turn while taking advantage of some good SHORTING opportunities as well.
Currently, I am waiting for wave iv to complete in order to go LONG in a trend continuation trade to catch the wave v up. But when wave v completes, I will be looking to go SHORT and catch the wave (C) down.
*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.