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pantheo
Dec 6, 2016 6:02 PM

Possible descending scallop in euro  做空

Euro Fx/U.S. DollarFXCM

描述

Not great pattern in results, but it's there
评论
IvanLabrie
Yes, it's a short here, and over the next week. I'm just buying USD against SEK, NOK, GBP from yesterday, and until FOMC, until I have a full position.
pantheo
@IvanLabrie, Has to close below 1.0710 to see 1.0660-30 area where demand is. I think it's a bit early for dollar to reach it's daily cycle low. Normally, it will take one to two weeks more. Weekly dollar is flagging but if bearish engulfing or O/S reversal will lead lower. Also danger of false move if doesn't keep range breakout above 100.55.

USDSEK also probably O/S reversal. Usually big candles like the one in euro take some time to resolve. With Draghi and FOMC, casino moves are coming even though market has fully priced a possible FED increase. Scary thing is that bonds can't catch a bid after this huge fall and with sentiment at extreme pessimistic levels. US10YY can see 2.78 area before tops. Crazy period. Looks like big portfolios are rebalancing in case bonds topped big time.
IvanLabrie
@pantheo, indeed!

I'm pretty relaxed about the dollar longs, just entering gradually, I'll amp up the size if I get better dollar prices in USDSEK, USDNOK, GBPUSD. EURUSD I'm leaving it alone for now, since it's the most manipulated one, I would short it higher but not for now.
pantheo
@IvanLabrie, Super:-)
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