So friday gave us NFP and as usual we got the pump and dump action before. But in my view we actually got faked out already on thursday in preparation for a much better NFP, but that did not happen and bears got caught.
Anyway, we did get a positive dollar reaction even though dollar got hit badly friday a bad EUR did not make it worse. On the hourly we did get a trendbreak and EURUSD even dipped below the Daily pivot which made the bulls desperate for getting it back above R1 to maintain the upmove, but bears did put up a fight but will it hold? Monday R1 will be at 1.1440 and if bulls want closes above that we need to be in a real bullish mood, i dont think we are, so i will be looking for another test and closes on the 1H below monday S1 1.1337. DP will be 1.1388.
So all in all monday i think we can see a fight where bulls want to break 1.1440 and bears want to stay below DP and break S1 1.1337, and when done we will be looking for lower targets, starting with 1.125x.
Also stoch has shown divergence indicating we got a top friday..
My reason of thinking? One of the oldest strategies for swingtrades, in uptrend price can not close below S1 on hourly, breaks of DP need break of R1 in order to maintain view. And the other way around for shorts.. Look at tuesday and thursday.. DP was broken to the downside with closes and bull took it straight to R1
Anyway, we did get a positive dollar reaction even though dollar got hit badly friday a bad EUR did not make it worse. On the hourly we did get a trendbreak and EURUSD even dipped below the Daily pivot which made the bulls desperate for getting it back above R1 to maintain the upmove, but bears did put up a fight but will it hold? Monday R1 will be at 1.1440 and if bulls want closes above that we need to be in a real bullish mood, i dont think we are, so i will be looking for another test and closes on the 1H below monday S1 1.1337. DP will be 1.1388.
So all in all monday i think we can see a fight where bulls want to break 1.1440 and bears want to stay below DP and break S1 1.1337, and when done we will be looking for lower targets, starting with 1.125x.
Also stoch has shown divergence indicating we got a top friday..
My reason of thinking? One of the oldest strategies for swingtrades, in uptrend price can not close below S1 on hourly, breaks of DP need break of R1 in order to maintain view. And the other way around for shorts.. Look at tuesday and thursday.. DP was broken to the downside with closes and bull took it straight to R1