Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (03.08-07.08)

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
Summary of last week:
Neither side could not take the initiative, which resulted in minimal appreciation of the euro against the dollar. The opening took place at the level of 1.0971, and closing the week slightly higher as at the level of 1.0988. On the one hand, we had information that supported the dollar (the basic contract of fixed assets and records of the FOMC, which suggested that the US economy is strong and ready for a possible interest rate hike in 2015. Partially dollar supported the statements by members of the IMF, who suggested that the International Fund Currency can not take part in the next tranche of aid for Greece). On the other hand, we know better than expected Ifo index of German and Friday's surprisingly weak US data that indicate what the truth better improvement in the labor market. However, better readings from the labor market does not go hand in hand with wage pressure, which translates into poor inflation readings.

The economic calendar for next week:
Monday: PMI Manufacturing indicators for individual European countries and the PMI collectively for the entire Euro zone. Then we will get data from the US: ISM and PMI;
Tuesday: factory orders in the US;
Wednesday: PMI services for individual European countries and the PMI for the services for the entire euro zone, further data from Europe is retail sales in the euro zone and the PMI according to Markit. Then we will change the ADP non-farm employment in the US as well as ISM and PMI for services in the US;
Thursday: from Germany will flow data on factory orders. USA shows the number of declared pre unemployed;
Friday: industrial production in Germany and the German trade balance. Then, in the US we will average hourly wages and the change in nonfarm employment. We will also unemployment in the US.

Forecast for Monday:
The currency pair after Friday's growth impulse, once again returned below the downtrend line, which is presented on the chart. At the moment there will be no settlement, which could indicate further, unequivocal direction. On the one hand, we are below the important and strong resistance of 1,1113-29, on the other hand, we are more than strong support 1.0916. It is worth mentioning that a significant level of support at the moment, is the level of 1,0808-31.
Taking into account indicators and technical analysis we can conclude that the market is in equilibrium and only further macroeconomic data, they can affect the direction of the currency pair discussed. Comparing the data tomorrow in one piece, keep in mind that data from the US have a stronger meaning, due to market expectations towards the Fed. Accordingly, the market will work according to the scheme better data from Europe and the US worse will support the single currency and vice versa.
In the case of strong readings from Europe and weak in the US, the market will try to address the euro towards recent highs at 1,1113-29. Only you raise this level will test the level of 1.1218.

In another case comes to inheritance, because better data from the US will strengthen the dollar and the increased expectations on the September interest rate hikes. Supply should not have a problem with piercing support at 1.0916 and referral toward the next support levels at levels 1,0865-80 and 1,0808-31.
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