Recently, this pair made a move up and so many posters here started to jump on the bandwagon and were saying "up, up and away"! Let's restore some sanity here and see what's REALLY "up"!
I've been saying for a couple of weeks now that this pair is due for a correction back down BEFORE it goes up and I haven't changed my tune. Despite this recent move up, I'm still looking for this pair to move lower before it does go up. Yes, I am LONG TERM VERY, VERY BULLISH on this pair and have been for almost 3 months now. But for the short term, it's more than likely headed south and then sideways for a little longer. How far south? Well, that's the question I will try to answer here in this analysis.
In one of previous posts, I was calling for a SELL upon the completion of some harmonic patterns and also because of my overall wave count. Prices shot up and invalidated all the harmonic patterns leaving only my wave count and an ending diagonal still intact. Here is the chart I had on this before in which my SELL trade ended up being wrong and I lost 40 pips:
But what has happened since then? Before I get into the details of what happened and what is happening now, here's a DAILY CHART updated and shows an overview of what I'm seeing:
So now that I've shown you what I am thinking should happen and how things might unfold on the DAILY chart, I'll explain what you are seeing in the MAIN chart above. It's a 4HR chart so keep that in mind. Don't know how long it will take for things to unfold but could be quick or could take longer with more sideways consolidation ahead. But eventually, this sideways action should give way to a large move up.
In the MAIN chart, it's almost the same chart as the above chart where I showed where my trade went wrong. Except now I've removed all the failed harmonic patterns and adjusted some wave counts. But the ED is still intact and it's showing the way down. In that ED, we had an extended E wave which is rather common for E waves in an ending diagonal. That move up out of the ED also crossed into the MAJOR SR Structure zone looking like it would begin a big move up but quickly turned back around and back out of the structure zone leaving behind a fake breakout. I'm SURE that caught many of those "bulls" by surprise!
Anyway, prices dropped back down and then even crossed through the ED and an upward trading channel that it had been in, retested it, failed and now has continued down. Will it continue down is the question and if it does, how far? In my new estimation, I'm not thinking very far. There is a "new" uptrending TL to which maybe forming the bottom of a barrier triangle. You can see that I've drawn out the possible path should prices follow this TL and bounce from it. In the meantime, what I am expecting to happen is that prices will trace back up towards the MAJOR SR Structure and retest it. It probably won't get too close to it but enough so as to possibly form a possible bat pattern. If it does do this, then that bat would complete right near to this "new" uptrending TL. Of course, this may or may not happen. There isn't a requirement for prices to do this. But it is a possibility. They could just continue heading down without retracing and forming this bat.
Incidentally, by heading back up and retesting that resistance and forming this bat, this is bearish PA as in my post on PA shows. Here's a reminder: MY TRADE PLAN I will be waiting for prices to head back up and retest the resistance structure. Then I will be looking for a good SHORT opportunity. Until that happens, I'll remain on the sides.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
Kadhijah
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really hard to reach for this pair.
thank for share
FrancescoPoderi
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I would look at this pair for a potencial bullish bat
FrancescoPoderi
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FrancescoPoderi
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i think the dragonfly doji on the 4H chart, is a nice reversal @ 0.50 retracement of XA, confirming the upward momentum
EverythingForex
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Your bat looks just like mine. Does that mean you agree with me? ;-)
FrancescoPoderi
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I personally think that the previous Bat got violated, cause the pair was pushing for 1.1500 (psychological level). it arrived overbough at that level @1.14938 as a high, than retreced quickly to a 0.50 fibo level, and next week it will push high again. we could put a nice 2top on the 4H chart, or it will stop @1.14758 for the BC leg of the new bat the me and you are tracking now.
if it push higher breaking the 1.15 level, we could se an AB=CD pattern ending right on the potencial area of the big bat pattern on the left.
anyway a good trade could be a buy entry on monday morning @1.1347 with SL under the 0.50 retrecement with profit @1.1475 at BC leg complition. giving a 1:5 risk/reward ratio
A lot to watch out for! dont u think?
zachlwang
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If this pair closes above the 50 MA on a weekly chart today (looks like it will), the next couple of weeks could see a swift move up for this pair. Just my opinion.
Also, why do you think the 1.1460 is the pivot on your PA chart (the last chart)? I think the 1.1360 could be a good the pivot that the price is currently bouncing off. If this pair takes out the 1.15 within the next couple of trading days, that would play right into your PA chart, but at a different pivot level. I don't have much patient. I longed at 1.1360 and put my SL a few pips below today's low at 1.1330. I'll add to my position if price breaks 1.1500.
EverythingForex
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The 1.1440-1.1500 level has shown to be of some importance in the past. Previously, it has held back any advance at least 4 times by my count .That is why I used it as my swing level. That is the width of the MAJOR SR Structure zone. When prices break through this level, then I agree that this pair will turn bullish. Until then, it's still bearish. As you can see in my latest post on this pair, I do believe that this area will get challenged again and soon. It might take 1-2 more tries before it does break through. This is why I am starting to see a barrier triangle possibly forming. This might happen pretty quickly (within a week or less) as I am starting to see bullish momentum forming as well. But for now, It should go down to form another leg of that triangle. If it does go down to where I am projecting and turns back up from there, then we should see my triangle prediction come true.
TradeYodha
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I have got something similar using a different approach
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.