2 Views Suggest Counter Trend Bounce Higher

As we approach major news events, one exercise I like to do is assess the possible wave picture before the event so when the volatility of the event hits, I'm mentally prepared with a plan. For anybody that has traded for a while, we've been caught in 'chasing' mode during a volatile news event countless times and it is no fun.

What strikes me is that Thursday's sell off stopped at a confluence of wave relationships near 1.1090. Therefore, as the labels on the chart suggest, the potential for a move up to 1.1300 is elevated.

Even if Thursday's sell off was a wave 'b' of an expanded flat, that still suggests a bounce higher to at least 1.1250.

Retail sentiment has been increasing which suggests the longer term trend is shifting lower so any bounce higher may be one to consider shorting...but not until the 1.13 area.

A break below Thursday's low in conjunction with a GBPUSD break down may suggest a powerful 3rd wave lower is already underway.

*Feel free to share your views as well. I'm always looking for other options.