Today’s rejection at 1.1720 coincided with multiple wave relationships. It is difficult to determine which count is standing out as the confluence includes relationships from the top 2 counts.
We’re leaning towards another 1 or 2 series of down-up sequences which suggests slightly higher prices. Therefore, the better risk to reward ratio trade suggests waiting to buy until EURUSD drops back to 1.1350-1.1450 while targeting 1.18.
I’m leaning towards the impulse labeling on the chart because RSI is behaving more like a 3rd wave than a 5th wave. That suggests more jabs higher may still exist.
Additionally, on ‘b’ waves (like count #2 suggests), though prices pivoted at the 1.382 times wave 'a', we should see heavy divergence on RSI. As we troll through several time frames, we see no evidence of divergence which leans us towards the impulse.
Here are other internals we monitor:
Elliott Wave Coun – It appears we are in red (iv) of circle ‘c’ of blue Y. This suggests more upside potential with the greater risk to reward ratio trade from lower levels as we anticipate the end of wave (iv).
Wave measurements – typically wave (iv) retraces about 38.2% times wave (iii). This would place a target near 1.1450. This price level also coincides with the June 18 and May 15 highs.
SSI – SSI currently sits at -2.6 which is near Friday morning’s level. Oddly enough, as Friday ended, SSI was approaching -3 so traders are less willing to sell this rally which suggests we may sell off some.
OBV – Volume surged and is carving new highs. This is bullish.
I've updated the picture as my favored view is that a meaningful top is in place on Aug 24. Therefore, we are looking for a countertrend bounce higher to stall in the 1.1250-1.1350 to align ourselves in the direction of the Elliott Wave trend.
ElPatron.Y
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That looks like a big bearflag.
SyedTalhaSaghir
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This is trade has been lost
SyedTalhaSaghir
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What to you say sir we can go buy here with prices almost bottoming 1.1310? or we should wait a bit more ??
ChatchaiVong
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thank so much
JWagnerFXTrader
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You are welcome Chatchai. Have a great day!
KVE
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Interesting! I'm not yet familiar with EW but I do have similar views:
JWagnerFXTrader
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Indeed - you do not have to be familiar with EW yet you can still draw the trend channel. EW will help ground the pattern to identify where we may be at in the trend...like a longitude/latitude reading.
Other patterns are rooted in EW as well (like equal waves, triangles, diagonals, fib retracements and fib expansions). So you probably have a basis for EW and may not realize it. Continue to ask questions and myself or the community will help you through it.
mike.church.963
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Hi Jeremy, Great analysis as normal, many thanks. If price retraces to the 1.1450 level I suspect it would also be likely retesting the daily 200 EMA (which it looks to have pushed through today) and whilst I appreciate Moving averages aren't really a part of Elliott wave it would be an additional confluence in the price area.
JWagnerFXTrader
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Great point. Once that 200 MA was broken, it may act like support now.
Also, if you draw a mid-line to the pink channel, it shows up in the same area we are anticipating a reversal from.