Yes. That's correct. Prices are declining but I remain overall bullish. VERY bullish in fact! Why? I've been reading that some people are calling this decline the start of a new bear trend and that the corrective phase is over. Not according to my wave count! By my wave count, the final wave (C) move up has not even started yet! And that move up could be a HUGE one! So let's see why I am saying all this.....
This will not be a FULL ANALYSIS as I did one just last weekend. You can go see that one for yourself if you wish to get the BIG picture: Just click on the picture below:
What you are seeing here in the main chart is the beginning of the wave c of (c) of the larger wave (B) down trend. There is a POTENTIAL bullish cypher here that could mark the end of the wave 1 of this decline. wave b that just finished was an expanding triangle pattern. When prices do break the lower TL of that expanding triangle, then the cypher should complete. BTW, that crab (blue) that I posted about last week (see Related Ideas: "FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Going UP 4 Now. Wave (B) Ending Soon"), it just missed getting filled by 1 lousy pip and getting me in on the very top of this down trend! Oh well, it happens! But it just goes to show you the accuracy and the power of wave analysis when combined with the PROPER use of advanced patterns! Got to within a single pip of predicting the turn! And I predicted it 5 days before it ever happened! Without even taking the FOMC into account!
DAILY CHART - Seeing The Forest Before The Trees Click on the picture below to get the FULL descriptions for this DAILY chart.
4Hr CHART - Closeup On The Wave (c) of (B) Decline & Patterns This chart shows the closeup of the DAILY chart focusing in on the current wave c of (c) of the larger wave (B). Following my wave labeling, if correct, then there MUST be a decline in a wave c of wave (c) and that is what I have occurring now. I have marked the internal subwaves of this wave (B) decline. The wave (B) should be unfolding in a ABC 5-3-5 zigzag with 5-wave wave a followed by a 3-wave wave b and now wave c should be unfolding in 5 waves. And this decline should complete EITHER at the butterfly or crab completion where there are strong fib level confluences.
MY TRADE PLAN Personally, I can't see anyway that there is not still more downside to go here and this wave down is only just beginning. So I am already SHORT in this pair by way of my trade I posted last week (see Related Ideas: "FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Going UP 4 Now. Wave (B) Ending Soon") in which I said that "when wave v completes, I will be looking to go SHORT and catch the wave (C) down." . In that post, I has posted a POTENTIAL Bearish crab pattern which almost completed but I was able to get in short a little later after seeing bearish price action and knowing that that wave up was near its end so I got in short on it. And I am now riding that trade down.
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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Looks good to me! Other than a small labeling error I see, everything looks fine. The wave up from where you have "Start" cannot be labeled as a 5-wave move since you would have wave (4) overlapping wave (1) which should not happen. When you see this, you should seek an a different count as that is a sign your count is incorrect. The ABC is fine. It's not a big quibble as far as I am concerned because I don't believe that wave counts must be EXACTLY correct as long as it leads you in the CORRECT direction. Unless you are trying to trade subwaves that is. In this case, whether you've labeled it a 5-wave motive wave or left it as a 3-wave corrective wave (as I have), it really doesn't matter. Result is the same. Both labelings suggest the next move is down. Yes, I know that what I just said would upset the "wave nazis" who insist everything must be exactly correct. Sorry, guys!
Miltonfx
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If I understood, you are long above 1.06 long time term but short firstly for a short term (intraday) with SL above 1.15...I was long with you this week to 1.1468 and short above 1.14 to be sure I catch the train eheheh... Was a nice close at the market last Friday.
Thank you. Excellent job
EverythingForex
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Thanks. Glad you got in on it. Yes. I am LONG long-term from the 1.06 levels but am now also in SHORT positions. This SHORT position does not have anything to do with my LONG positions in this pair. They are treated as wholly separate trades.