There's alot on the chart I admit... So it might again look somewhat cluttered but it is important for me to consider all the different scenario's and because I don't want to forget my reasoning if we continue on the path that I think we're on and which might take months to years to develop... If you take the time to look at the details I hope you will agree...
Down signs: - MA's - Possible MACD histogram divergence developing (Not confimed) - Bearish flag pattern
Up signs: - Up channel - Possible ascending triangle - Upward sloping MACD lines - RSI above 50 again - 38.2 fib level not yet reached... - Possible AB=CD with a possible bearish 3-drives pattern as an extension - Possible WXY pattern with possible WXYXZ pattern as an extension - Possible completion of bearish bat patterns around key levels on this timeframe (also on smaller timeframes) - Up trendline on the 1H and 4H charts
Still more "up" than "down" signs...
Currently looking to get long at a decent entry level for a further ride up to the first short-term targets:
Possible gameplan based on this analysis:
Very-short-term (days to 1 week): - Around 1.1460, a previous structure level - Around 1.1500 for completion of a bat on the 1H chart (+ psych level, allthough broken before...)
Short-term (1 or more weeks): - Up after a possible retracement to around 1.1800, the important 38.2 fib level!
Mid-term (weeks to months): - Further up afer a possible decent retracement to the next fib levels (50% and 61.8%) - Alternatively down after breaking the "up" channel to the long-term trendline and possibly parity
Long-term (months to 1-2 years): - Possibly up again from the long-term "up" channel or parity to completion of one of the different patterns that can be drawn on the long-term (1.3600 as the important 0.886 retracement of the May 2014 to March 2015 down move!) - Down again after that, but that's far from now, I'm betting I will have to update this analysis much sooner...
I will not necessarily trade off of this idea but will again use this as a possible roadmap to base my smaller-timeframe trades on. I will post an update if we get to one or more of these levels or when PA invalidates my current views and gameplan.
评论
alexander.gorodynsky
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cool
ChatchaiVong
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thank so much, please update TF H4 or D1 again.
KVE
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Currently waiting for the FOMC rate decision on Thursday, we could see some very high volatility if the FED announces/denounces the much anticipated rate hike!
It would be better to wait for the storm to settle before making any new analysis on smaller timeframes. If you want to trade the reactions to the rate decision you can still use the targets from this analysis (and possible some of the lower timeframe analysis I posted before) to base your trades and TP/SL on.
Be careful though if you trade on small timeframes with tight SL during the first reaction, we could see some huge moves (several 100's of pips in limited time) so slippage might be big making the risk on a trade much higher than initially anticipated!!
Good luck!
KVE
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And again without the text boxes and oscillators for a cleaner view: