Schlabberlatz
做空

The big short? EURUSD

FX_IDC:EURUSD   欧元/美元
Hi guys,

a little update to the trade idea I published earlier last week. Today we had a major bearish day for the EUR/USD             , does that mean we can short now?

A unexprienced tradre might think so, after all we got strong bearish momentum in the market today. However as a good trader we wan't to establish a portfolio for our trade idea. So lets look at other factors:

The DXY            
Looking at the 4h chart, we can see that price has recently found a bottom after a strong sell off. As you guys might know, the DXY             is inversely correlated to the EURUSD             . If the DXY             moves up, the EURUSD             goes down, and the other way around aswell. Aswell as finding a bottom, the DXY             formed a inverse head & shoulders pattern, a bullish price action formation. Combine this with bullish MACD divergence we got a indicator that price might correct itself in the future. Right at the time as im writing this, price seems to break out of intraday resistance, which would indicate a shift in momentum. But lets look further to widen our picture.

The USDOLLAR             Index
Looking at the 4h chart aswell, we can see that price just broke trough resistance, and is now testing the last line of defence, a descending trendline . Though the break out of the range indicates bullish momentum, we need to see how the USDOLLAR             index will react to this resistance, to determine wether we have a fake out, or a real momentum shift.

Combining these charts with the information we already have on the EURUSD             , the monthly hightest at resistance and the overextended bullish run, we could see the EURUSD             head lower. However to really commit to a trade I'd need to see confirmation of a shortterm trendchange.
This would be the break of the neckline on the EURUSD             4h chart, and a retest, aswell as a brekaout on the USDOLLAR             and a retest. Nevertheless the confluence on this potential trade is massive, and it is a trade one wouldn't want to miss if it goes. My plan for the future hours/days is to await the break and retest, and then position myself short.

I will keep you updated!
评论:
Excellent breakdown on the 4h chart, now all I will do is wait for a retracement to the 0.5/0.618 fib level with a nice rejection.
ZH 简体中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
首页 股票筛选器 外汇信号搜索器 加密货币信号搜索器 财经日历 如何运作 图表功能 网站规则 版主 网站 & 经纪商解决方案 插件 图表库 功能请求 博客 & 新闻 常见问题 帮助 & 维基 Twitter
个人资料 个人资料设置 账号和账单 我的支持通知 联系支持 已发表观点 粉丝 正在关注 私人消息 聊天 退出