Last week price did reach the 61,8 fib retracement of the recent leg
up (to the Yearly ). The bounce was sharp but still price
just touched the Weekly (pip to pip again) just to return
back down, crawling along the Kumo Cloud.
This week price has bounced off the Weekly at 1.0602,
again with a clean touch. The bounce was short and intra day
acted resistance after which price started moving down in an accelerating
fashion and today it reached the Weekly S1 just above previous low.
Chances are good that price will continue down. First target is the Monthly S1
at 1.0487 which is in perfect confluence with the 61,8 Fib of the CD leg.
Level highlighted with green.
The completion of the stands right above the major swing
low/Multi Year low (1.0334) from Jan 3, 2017. at 1,0370. Considering that
price was strongly rejected by the Yearly , it is natural to see
a move towards the Yearly S1 which stands at 1.0050. Older swing lows
are marked with a blue spotted line below the currrent low.
negation: Price entering the Kumo Cloud H4 tf (first signal); a taking
out of the C level of the thus invalidating the pattern; a break
above the Kumo Cloud (H4). However, the is triggered once the
B level is breached, which has not happened yet.
Note on the Daily time frame price just bounced off the lower Kumo Cloud.
A Daily close above 1.0560 may hint another deeper retracement. A close
below the Cloud on Daily tf will not produce a valid Sell Signal
(Kumo Breakout Signal) since the projected Kumo Cloud is . Also a
right Shoulder may be forming in a Head and Shoulds pattern, but it is premature
to speculate about it, since the pattern is only formed after a completion of
the right shoulder with a proper neckline. In my view, once the
is invalidated, chances increase strongly that a H & S pattern will be formed
(or a Sell if the A level is taken out and price breaking above the