Weekly Forex Forecast (October 16 – 20, 2017)

EURUSD bulls look ready to capitulate following an impressive run so far in 2017. The 1,750 pip rally that began with the January 3 low is the longest since before the mid-2014 landslide that cost the pair 3,500 pips.

We’ve been following this ascending channel (see chart below) for more than a month now. The bearish pin bar that formed at 1.2040 was the first sign that buyers were tiring. Then came the “heavy” price action near key support at 1.1875.

See this post for the three warning signs that a turn lower was likely.

Just last week I commented that the EURUSD would face a new round of selling pressure below 1.1875. This area of resistance has been on our radar for quite some time.

Not only did sellers defend the 1.1875 resistance level on Thursday of last week, but they also showed up again on Friday. In fact, Friday’s session reached a high of 1.1874 before sliding 58 pips into the close.

As mentioned on Wednesday, there’s a chance the pair could be carving a head and shoulders pattern. That said, it’s going to take a daily close (5 pm EST) below 1.1670 to confirm the formation. Until that time, the single currency is range bound.

A close below 1.1670 would pave the way for a move toward the next key support at 1.1490. It would also open up the measured objective just below the 1.1300 handle.

Alternatively, a daily close back above 1.1875 would delay the bearish outlook and expose 1.2040 resistance.

Source: http://bit.ly/2gbGBL4 (all five currency pairs)
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