dchua1969
教学

What has education got to do with Property ?

FX_IDC:GBPCNH   BRITISH POUND / OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN
http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong-china/article/2118672/childrens-education-drives-chinese-demand-uk-property

Apparently, a lot more than what I thought! The news about Chinese families sending their children to study overseas is old news but to the point of driving the property prices in UK, Canada, Australia have both its proponents and opponents view.

As parents, who would not want their children to receive better education and have exposure to a better English speaking environment ? Even better, if the tuition fees paid for the children's education can be offset by the property prices when they graduate. It seems like a win-win situation to me.

Out of interest, I take a look at the monthly chart and this is what I see.

Option 1 : Price is likely to go upwards to hit the upper blue channel line and then retrace downwards (follow the white line). The overall trend is still bearish . And if it falls, could it reach the lowest point of 2017 at 8.08?

Option 2 : Price moves towards the upper blue channel line and breakout. It retraces a little and continue its upward surge towards 9.6665 which is the 618 FIB level. Point to note : This breakout from channel is not 100% true as I had seen many times in Gold             and other charts that it is nothing but a mere fake breakout, a move to lure the retail buyers to go long and the big boys take advantage to sell down hard.

Currently, the day chart is showing bullish momentum with price closing above 21EMA and if one look closely at the candles on the monthly chart, there are many bullish engulfing candles in it - 01/11/16, 01/03/17 and 01/09/17 (so happens it all coincides with the 1st day of the month). The possibility of the current price, 8.78 moving towards the 9.00 zone is high. Thereafter, one needs to monitor the price action to determine the next course of action. Watch out for the ascending wedge pattern - if there are signs of price breaking down, that means Option 1 is in place.

As usual, check the spread of this pair, trading hours, etc if this is not already in your portfolio. Start small to test your idea and work your way up to a bigger position size if the price action is moving in accordance to your plan. I have learnt from past mistakes not to "show hand" too fast like in a casino and be in a position of low cash/chips to play the next game. Remember, the last person standing may not necessarily be the one who bet the heaviest at the start. The need to prove ourselves right can be a fatal mistakes as I had in the past. So Mr Market is like the casino, they are always there, like the 7-11 slogan - always close but never closed. So, unless you have the "luck factor" all the time, it is prudent to go small, win a little or lose a little and learn from it than to go big and lose it all. We are trading with our money , not our ego, so be humble and have a willing heart to learn and Mr Market will reward you in due course.

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