GBPJPY - No more long trades on this pair??

May be there are no more long trades on this pair left for coming years. Although the retracement is little less than 61.8%, but on the other hand, red trendline is also broken but still there might be one pending leg up. IMHO             , most probability goes for Bearish trend because there is nice bearish divergence on MACD as well.
(This is Monthly time frame chart, good for long term perspective only ! )
评论: Very nicely fell and finished first free fall. Ready for correction upwards...

Happy trades.. :)
This would be a good chart to study. Im pretty sure the wave count is wrong on this one. The inpulse waves can only go up in a bull fasion with the end of wave 5 coming down to correct all five waves. As per Elliot theory. So I see two solid impulse counts from X to A, and B to C. With there ABC patterns on the fall. We know that wave 2 can not go past wave 1 bottom. So that rules out the a to b on the chart making the b the beggining of impulse wave 1. Heres a few reltionship rules

•Wave 1 is corrected by wave 2 by between 50% to 100% (note that 50% is obtained by dividing 1 by 2 in the Fibonacci series of numbers)
•Wave 3 is usually 161.8% of wave 1
•Wave 4 is often 38.2% of wave 3. Occasionally, when wave 1 was a shallow correction, we can see wave 4 coming down by 50% of wave 3, and very rarely 61.8% of wave 3. If wave 3 was an extension, then wave 4 is more likely to terminate around the 23.6% retracement level.
•Wave 5 is often computed by taking either a 38.2% measure or a 61.8% measure of the distance traveled from the start of wave 1 to the end of wave 3. If Wave 3 had extended, then there is a high chance for wave 5 to be equal to wave 1.
•Within corrections, in a zigzag correction, wave C is often 161.8% of wave A. If the correction is a flat correction, then wave C is usually equal to wave A or no more than 138.2% of wave A.
hi RK. thanks for the input. Your mentioned relationships are all good but somehow i couldnt really figure out where exactly the rules are broken. Can u plz do a favor to highlight on chart and show us. Appreciated !!
RKchartest Elliottician_SamRoy

Ok, im still learning the Elliot Theory and this was really good to get some practice in for me. I followed the rules best I could. I also broke out an old book called five waves to financial freedom and re-read some of the chapters to make sure I got these fib ratios correct and etc. Like anything, you dont know what you have till after it has happened. best we can do is get confident and place low risk assumptions. Let me know what you think SamRoy. Cheers
RKchartest RKchartest
There is a typo. Wave 3 must travel 100% of wave 1.
RK, bro you have started an impulse after completion of impulse. While i was taking this last 3 wave move as a correction (ABC)
RKchartest Elliottician_SamRoy
I see where your getting at. I was looking at your bold black 1 and 2 as wave legs. Which 1 would of been at (a) and 2 at (b) since 2 is always a correction wave.
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