The GBP/USD is an interesting market at the moment, especially from a technical standpoint. The H4 timeframe shows that price recently crossed the large psychological boundary 1.30, which, as you can see, is currently being retested as support. To the left of current price, notice that we have drawn a mini down trendline. This is to represent what we believe to be consumed supply i.e. no active supply. So, with this, we should expect the pair to continue northbound? If only it were that easy!
On the bigger picture we have a weekly supply area at 1.3120-1.2957, and a partner supply seen on the daily timeframe at 1.3058-1.2979 in play right now. Therefore, although H4 price is showing potential to the upside, one has to remain cognizant of the surrounding environment.
Our suggestions: While a long is tempting from the 1.30 region today, we are going to hold fire. Buying into higher-timeframe supplies usually ends in tears!
Data points to consider: UK current account figures at 9.30am. US Core PCE price index report at 1.30pm, followed by Chicago PMI at 2.45pm GMT+1.