ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Now Come The FALL! But It's NOT the BIG ONE!

For anyone that has been following my posts, you know that I've been BULLISH on this pair for a long time. And in almost every post, I am showing a bullish scenario. So you are now probably saying, "What the heck?" Why are you now saying it's gonna FALL?". Well ,one of the characteristics of a successful trader is to NEVER be so tied into being "right" that you can't see the OBVIOUS right in front of you. It's NEVER about being "right". Only about making money.. You are either with the market or against it. And I got news for you, the market ALWAYS wins!

I continuously analyze and re-analyze the market with an open mind. I try never to be so caught up about me being "right" that I fail to see the obvious. And right now, the scenario that I am posting here seems to be the obvious! Mind the fact that it's STILL only a possibility. I'm not saying this is for sure. Only time will tell.

So enough with the lesson. So what the heck is going on with Cable right now? Let's see....

What you are seeing in the chart above is the COMPLETED bullish shark pattern I posted about last Friday (see Related Ideas: "TRADE: GBPUSD: BUY@1.5380 Completed Shark"). In fact, I am already LONG on this pair by way of that shark pattern. BUT...by this scenario, this is NOT the beginning of the long anticipated wave (C) up! By this scenario, this move up will only be a brief retrace of that last big move down in a wave (2) action. It should be a sharp retrace and ending right around where I have the POTENTIAL bearish 5-0 pattern completing. This move up will also be a retest of the recently broken lower trend line of the larger consolidation pattern. After which, I would anticipate a wave (3) down that will be quite strong! So in this scenario, THAT wave (3) is what I will be watching for! Although this downward move I'm showing is happening on the DAILY TF, I expect that this will all occur pretty quickly and will not take several weeks to complete. But this down move will be a bear trap. So when most people have jumped on board this bearish move, then the BIG wave (C) up will begin trapping all those bears!

OVERVIEW - Daily Chart Showing the 3 Patterns, Wave Count And Projected Price Action
This DAILY Chart is basically the same one from last week (see Related Ideas: "QUICK ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Two Scenarios It Could Follow") in which I laid out a bearish scenario (Scenario #2). In this Daily Chart below, the 3 patterns that could define this move down are shown. The first stop would be the bullish butterfly pattern which could mark the end of the wave (iii) down. The other two pattern, the bat and the crab could make the end of the down move and wave (B) and mark the beginning of the BIG up move in wave (C). Notice that the bat and the crab BOTH finish almost on top of each other! Also notice that there is a AB=CD pattern along the way down that completed near a MAJOR SR Structure. Just something to take note of when prices reach that point and to expect some kind of reaction. But first, prices MUST cross down below the B point before any of this can happen. For now, that B point will provide support for a short wave (ii) up and then BAM! The wave (ii) down will shoot past that B point line and proceed down sharply.

MY TRADE PLAN
As per my trade post last week, I am currently LONG on this pair expecting the bounce retracement of that big move down last week which I labeled a wave (i). This wave (i) turned this pair bearish. I'll be in this wave (ii) up until it hits the 5-0 pattern. Upon that BEARISH 5-0 pattern completion, I will be looking to go SHORT for the wave (iii) down.