As the majority of currencies, the pound strengthened against USD, although less than commodity currencies. However, the pair GBP/USD successfully broke through the important psychological level of 1.3000 and reached 10-month maximum. It was to a great extent facilitated by negative factors weakening USD, such as weak and labor market data. This week the dynamics of the pair will be determined by continuing negativity for USD namely the failure of Trump's administration to pass the health care reform in the Congress. The pound was under pressure of negative UK data. Consumer prices index and real estate prices were much worse than expected. In view of the upcoming decision of the Bank of England on the this statistics naturally caused the weakening of the pound and consolidation of the pair. Further decisions of the investors will to a great extent depend on the data on the UK retail sales released today at 10:30 (GMT+2). The forecast provides for the increase of the sales up to the levels of 2014.
Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected decrease by 2,000 and 5,000 respectively. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main forecast for today is the continuation of the pair's weakening.
Support levels: 1.2990, 1.2865, 1.2780.
Resistance levels: 1.3040, 1.3110, 1.3200.
Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2990, 1.2865 and stop-loss at 1.3100.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from the level of 1.3040 with targets at 1.3110, 1.3200 and stop-loss at 1.2970.
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