For those considering a short at the noted H4 supply base, it might be worth noting that a fakeout above this area into 1.33 is highly likely. Why? Well, not only are the stops above the current supply attractive for traders with deep pockets as this provides liquidity to short, but 1.33 also represents weekly resistance plotted at 1.3301! Traders who do not adopt a multi-timeframe approach will not see this.
Suggestions: An ideal scenario today would be a H4 selling wick piercing through the top edge of the current H4 supply into active sellers around 1.33 (see H4 chart for a visual example). This, in our technical opinion, would be enough to warrant a sell on the close of this candle, targeting 1.3225/1.32.
Data points to consider: US unemployment claims at 1.30pm; US pending home sales m/m at 3pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.33 region (waiting for a H4 selling wick to form is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).