Gold Trend 28/02 - 04/03

已更新

Gold tested the 1880 supported for the second time in 2 days last Friday. Since the market opened at 1906, the price kept moving higher until it reached day-high 1921. The price has slipped after that; it touched 1882 at the US session, with the day ending at 1888, down by USD15.

Gold escaped the selling trendline(1) at the end of the US session last Friday; the downtrend originated from 1974 is now officially completed, and it's now entering a term of a sideways market with 1880-1930(3) as the range. Back from the weekend, a vital bullish sign has occurred, with the market having a gap up opening of nearly USD 20. Currently, the gold price is under pressure from trendline(2) while it is trying to recover the gap(4). Buying support seems strong below 1906; if the price breakout from the resistance line(2), the price will reach again 1920-30. Nonetheless, the price should be range-bound in 1883-1930, where the volatility is going back to the average level.

The uptrend channel(5) in the daily chart is still valid. But notice, the daily closing price may determine the movement for the coming few days... If the price closes below 1908(6) today, it will resume its position back to 1880-1908(7), continuing its range-bound pattern; on the other hand, if the price clears the resistance zone of 1900-08(6), the uptrend will resume and once again toward the resistance of the uptrend channel(5).

S-T Resistances:
1920
1915
1910

Market price: 1908

S-T Supports:
1903-00
1893
1888

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注释

Gold eased after Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. The week began with the market opened gapping USD 30 higher at 1918 back from the weekend. The price has quickly jumped to 1931 but stayed above 1920 for only a short while. The gap(1) was refilled before the European session as the price touched 1893. Overall the price was range-bound between 1893-1920 yesterday, and the day ended at 1908.

As mentioned yesterday, the downtrend that originated from 1974 has been completed, and the price is still contained within 1883-1920(2). An S-T support line(3) has formed after the price rebounded before the closing yesterday. Expect the price to slide along this support line(3) toward 1920 until it breaks out from the range.

Gold has failed to clear the 1900-08 resistance zone(4); the daily was again below 1910. The structure on the daily chart hasn't changed much, and the M-T uptrend channel remains effective. Still waiting for the daily candle to close below 1890 to kick start the M-T consolidation trend toward 1850 or below. But before that, continue to take advantage of the 1880-1910(6) range.

S-T Resistances:
1920
1915
1910

Market price: 1906

S-T Supports:
1903-00
1893
1888

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注释

Gold gained USD 36 yesterday. The market opened at 1908; the climb began early in the Asian session after a short consolidation toward 1900. The price broke out from downward trendline(1) and the critical resistance 1930(2), climbed all-the-way to 1950 ending the day at 1944,

The gain yesterday was triggered by news again from Ukrain, with the oil price leading the climb and gold lagging. The uptrend has resumed. After the price broke out from the 1880-1930(6) range yesterday, expect the price to reach 1980 technically with a 1:1 ratio measurement. An S-T support line(5) has formed in the last 24 hours. 1930-50(4) should be the range in early trading today.

Gold was finally able to close above 1910 on the daily chart. As it has escaped the uptrend channel, the next significant resistance is 1950 (following 1975/2000). Major supports to the downside 1930/1920/1900.

S-T Resistances:
1965
1950
1940

Market price: 1935

S-T Supports:
1930-27
1920
1915

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注释

Gold was rejected by 1950 again yesterday. The day began at 1943, and the price has traded between 1930-50(1) during the Asian & European sessions. The drop has started after the price broke the S-T support line(2) and the neckline of the mini-double top pattern(3) at the US session. The day-low has gone to as low as 1915, ending the day at 1928, down by USD16.

The uptrend remains on the hourly chart; however, the momentum has slowed down from the previous trendline(2) to a more gentle upward trendline(4). After the trading yesterday, the structure(6) needs to be adjusted to (6.1), and the upside target reset to 1960. Set the range of 1915-50 as the per-US session trading strategy. The price must stay above 1915 in the next 24 hours. If the price goes back to the previous range below 1915, the structure pattern of (6.1) will be revoked, the uptrend in the hourly chart will turn south.

The selling at 1950 has been strong so far; it seems like it will take a few more attempts if gold wants to jump higher. On the other hand, the closing price on the daiy chart will need to stay above 1920 in the next two trading days for gold to remain on its current uptrend.

S-T Resistances:
1950
1940
1930-33

Market price: 1925

S-T Supports:
1920
1915
1910-08

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注释

Gold was steady yesterday. The day began at 1929. The early trading in the Asian and European sessions was under the resistance of 1930, bounded between 1920-30. Buying orders have started to enter the market until the US session. The price touched day-high at 1941 with the day ending at 1935.

The market was in line with our expectation yesterday, the price being range-bound by 1920-50(1) and trendline (2) dominating the movement. The resistance at 1950 remained strong, where the price has jumped to 1951, triggered by news from Ukraine, early in the Asian session today and quickly pulled back. The US employment figure should lead the movement later today Althought no one can precisely predict the actual figures and the market's reaction, the range 1920-50(1) should be able to provide a basic structure to set up the trading strategy for today. Suppose the price breaks the key resistance of 1950(4), the upside target will be at 1960(5)/or well beyond, after these many times of rejection in the past week. Trendline (2) has now adjusted to (2.1) on the hourly chart. Just like yesterday, if the price breaks the support of (2.1), the current uptrend will be finished, following a period of consolidation or range-bond.

The M-T trend hasn't changed much on the daily chart, it is still maintaining its path within an uptrend In a S-T trading perspective, the price is now traped by the 1920-50(6) range.

S-T Resistances:
1965
1950
1940

Market price: 1939

S-T Supports:
1930-27
1920
1915

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