First Thing that I always do is to find the map and see where is the price and where it wants to go.
I have seen a bearish Elliott Wave with possibility of correction wave to a little above wave 4 which I named it as Point E right on R5 Trend. (Based on Elliot Wave Principle).
And Also I see a Double Bottom Pattern that gives more significant to reach point E. Beside double bottom pattern I have my own secret to complete my map in most certain way; which is Orbit time and price cycling. Once I complete the Orbit strategy here I found the Future Expected Price A also on top and give me more confidence to have a bullish movement. According to Orbit Strategy; still we have Minor Orbit 2 active and that is a thread to us to have also a bearish movement to FEP C which is a bearish movement. But these are only my map and I do not trade based on map and personal expectation.
HOWEVER I DO NOT TRADE BASED ON WHAT I EXPECT ( ELLIOT , PATTERN OR ORBIT). This is very important to only trade based on what you see rather that you expect or imagine.
Once we have the map, step 1 is completed we go to start the analyzes and finding the best area to open position:
On R2 Trend we open 2 Sell positions after trend CT1 and CT2 are broken (since our R2 steep is bearish ). Each time price touches R2 I would put sell after confirmation trend breaks out and my SL will be a little above R2 + Spread. Any time R2 Breaks out I will close all my sells (which mainly will close still on little profit because we bout on good area). Fortunately price dropped after my second sell position and reached S1 Trend. When I see double bottom I will wait to see CT3 Breaks and immediately I will close all my sell and open buy position.
At this point where the price is I see no issue to talk about.
At this point I see price had reacted on R1 trend line . Since we are in upward movement and we expect to see more uprising movement I will not sell easily on this point.
I will keep my Buy open and wait to see which trend either R1 or S2 breaks out. If S2 Breaks I will close my buy and go for sell and expect to reach FEP C on S1 Trend. And if S1 Trend does not break I will Buy at that point again right on the rend after confirmation trend breaks out.
If R1 breaks so I will stay on my Buy position till I get next Alert.
A good trader will buy on the bottom and sell on top AFTER CONFIRMATION TREND BREAKS OUT and always be aware of the opposite direction of its trade and expectation.
I don't believe in Black Day, but if you make 1 or 2 mistake means you are not aware of your opposite direction or not patient enough.
If you have question you can read my previous analyzes or also email me on farsi.masoud@gmail.com
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