Since I am recording validations of short scenarios in monthly and my investigation started on this stock.
Analysing the major tops and bottoms of IBM
Low: nov 2008
Top: mar 2013
Low: jan 2016
Uptime: 1080 bars
Downtime: 717 bars
Total cycle: 1797 bars which is 4.99 times the 360degrees of a circle
Ratio down:up: 0.666 with offset of 2.28 days which is one degree on the Wheel.
As seen in the , price retraced 0,666 and made the Jan 2016 low (point B in red). Drawing an relation only from the down wave, gives an allignment in point D around 189euro would be ideal scenario to short.
However the major cycle triggers shorts at an early level of 183euro (point C in red) and sets the date at 20th of April 2017.
It is possible to estimate the cyclical time more linear with an average cyclical time near 20 weeks is also providing and underlyning estimates in time.
I have sets alerts on my candle patterns detection and pattern screener, if time and price allign.......a trade is possible towards 29th of November 2017 (which is 9 years and 10.5days after the nov 2008 low.) If 10.5days i divided by a year 365 days, you get the disponantions effect of a square in a wheel of 2.28. And yes this is also very close to 2.276.
Although those projection in time&price have some offset, and can only be traded well with money&risk management rules in place, it displays the cause of market movement. And not the effect, which is an outcome with hindsight!
This means from the projection you could have taken 13.5 points long in IBM and already 12 points in the short. The IBM cycle seems to be left-handed overall not really bullish.
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Best to your trading!