yauger

Getting closer to a top

TVC:IXIC   纳斯达克综合指数
31 0 3
The signs are there we are getting closer to some kind of top. Most sentiment indicators are diverging and even on strong days like yesterday, the Advance Decline ratio was barely above 2 for the Tecks and even below 2 for the rest. The bulls are getting exhausted. Last week drop that took everybody by surprise was the first sign the ice is getting thinner.

Markets are patterned and using the Wave Principle one can say that the advance does not look over. But then do we need two iterations of a fourth and fifth before a top is here as shown on this chart or maybe only one will do the trick? I don't know. Again markets are patterned but labeling can be subjective and you have to be aware of that fact and behave accordingly.

Cycles and analogies seem to indicate a turning point around mid-July. Weakness toward that time frame will suggest another buying surge until September. On the other hand, crawling higher to mid-July might indicate we will be rolling over at that time.
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