Jnug to Gold Rate Hike ?? Feb 1st
So typically the miners cycle would have ended today....and maybe it did. But like I said in a earlier post, I think we may stretch this cycle out until Feb 1st. If we do have a rate hike then I am expecting a similar movement down for that day and then a sharp rise the next few days. It also appears that we may be making a zig zag pattern which started zigging today. So while I think we could go up more, I just don't think it will be a big move up. Maybe up to the 10 DMA or at least touch the $8.74 resistance line before closing at the 10DMA. In other words, we should trade sideways for the most part, on Monday and Tuesday. Then IF a rate hike does happen, it would seem highly likely that we drop to touch the 50 DMA which as you can see would also be right at about the trend line at approx. $7. And then yes, a bounce to retest the recent highs.
At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored.
I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.
At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored.
I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.
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Sorry but I made a slight mistake on my Yen Chart. the 100% move of wave 3 is actually a measurement on the depth of the cup in this cup and handle formation.
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I have it inverted because I like it that way better.