JPM - Possible Short

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JPM has declined from a double tops formation which is marked by two horizontal blue lines at approximately 70 and 68.5. Based on this formation, we would expect a new resistance level to be established at approximately 60, which has been the case thus far in 2016.

At the moment JPM is flirting with this line at 59.76 which brings up the question of whether it can break its resistance level or if it will decline again.

There's little to indicate that it should continue upward in a bullish manner. Firstnote the expected decline from its recent double tops. This is the first price range shown on the chart, declining 14.31% from the resistance at 60. In actuality, the price never declined more than 11.09% (the second price range shown on the chart). This is a weak indicater that more bearish behavior is possible - albeit a weak one as its not at all uncommon for a reversal to miss a price target.

Second we can examine the volume , which is at 20.929M shares today against a moving average of 24.179M. Volume over the past several days has failed to increase significantly and show strong buying pressure, despite a jump in price. This suggests little moment behind the move.

Third, we can look at the last time the stock tried to reach its resistance level . On a similarly abrupt spike and on similar volume , it crashed dramatically almost immediately after and set a new low.

In terms of evidence favoring a bullish move, I should point out that there is a stubby little head and shoulders bottom pattern that appears from mid January until now. I do not believe this is a valid formation based on the nature of the head (you can examine JPM using candlesticks and see its a single outlier), volume spikes that are inconsistent with the formation, and its uncharacteristically short duration (though head and shoulders certainly do appear over short timeframes, I'm wary of them without strong confirming indicators).

Overall I think that while its possible (especially if the market on the whole surges) that the stock moves up from here, it is most likely that JPM will fail to pierce its resistance level and will decline to approximately 57, possibly even setting a new low as it did the last time it approached resistance.
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